GDPNow Q3 growth nowcast now up to 2.5%, from 2.1%.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median forecast (tan), GDPNow of 9/9 (blue square) and of 9/4 (blue open square), NY Fed (red triangle), St. Louis Fed (light green inverted triangle), Goldman Sachs (teal circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Nowcasts are as of 9/6 except where noted; nowcast levels calculated iterating growth rate to reported 2017Q2 2nd release GDP levels. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, Philadelphia Fed for SPF, Atlanta Fed (9/9), NY Fed (9/6), St. Louis Fed (9/6), Goldman Sachs (9/6), and author’s calculations.
The employment situation and wholesale trade reports raised the nowcast. While consumption growth is nowcasted for 3.5%, vs. 3.8% on 8/30. What’s the relative accuracy of GDPNow? I’ve not seen recent assessments, but here’s DeutscheBank’s 2019 comparison.
Source: Luzzetti, et al. “Tracking the GDP trackers,” Deutsche Bank US Economic Perspectives, 24 July 2019.
We are now about 50 days out from the advance release for Q3 (on 10/30), so GDPNow is about as accurate on average as the Bloomberg consensus. (The NY Fed nowcast has been substantially revamped, so the MAE numbers shown above are no longer relevant.)
and you do not think you are in recession!
Something tells me that Antoni will be searching hard for some statistic – any statistic – to suggest Q3 GDP will be in the dumpster. Meanwhile back to that JD Vance claim that some Haitan immigrant will steal your cat and have it for dinner:
What’s really happening in Springfield?
https://jabberwocking.com/whats-really-happening-in-springfield/
The Springfield in question is Springfield, Ohio, about 15 miles from Dayton. Something like 15,000 Haitian refugees have resettled there recently, and a year ago one of them ran into a school bus and killed an 11-year-old student. J.D. Vance made hay with this and everything spiraled from there. A few days ago someone in a Springfield Facebook group claimed that Haitians were catching and butchering local ducks and cats. America 2100, an anti-immigrant organization, followed up with a Twitter thread about the horrors of Haitian immigrants in Springfield, which was then picked up by Benny Johnson, Breitbart, Elon Musk, the GOP, and a vast host of others. Within a couple of days it had all gone viral. Aside from the brutal racism involved in all this, it’s ironic for two reasons. First, until recently Springfield was a dying town. Ten years ago it began a program to attract new business and it was stunningly successful: before long it had produced more jobs than the town could fill. According to the New York Times, “Many young, working-age people had descended into addiction. Others shunned entry-level, rote work altogether, employers said.”
The Haitian community heard about this and rescued Springfield. They migrated from other states and filled the jobs, doing them so well that more and more businesses set up shop. By all accounts, the Haitian settlers were hard working, law abiding, and healthy. “It was incredible to witness the transformation of our community,” said Horton Hobbs, vice president of economic development for the Greater Springfield Partnership, which executed the plan. The second point of irony is that this has nothing to do with either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Most of the Haitians were already in the country thanks to the Cuban Haitian Entrant Program of 1980. They moved to Springfield because they learned that it had lots of good jobs. “Haitians who heard that the Springfield area boasted well-paying, blue-collar jobs and a low cost of living poured in, and employers were eager to hire and train the new work force.” Now, there’s no question that the influx of refugees over the past five years has taken a toll. Clinics and schools have been overwhelmed, and it’s taken a while to adjust. Housing prices have gone up. Crime spiked in 2021, but that appears to be mostly a statistical artifact due to changes in how aggravated assault was defined. So who’s behind the viral meme about the immigrant horrors of Springfield? Good question. Semafor has reported on a secretive group being paid considerable sums to create right wing social media memes. Russia paid $10 million to create Tenet Media, a fake news outlet that released thousands of right wing videos. The FBI recently seized 32 websites that were part of a Russian disinformation program called Doppelganger, which produced realistic looking fake news sites as part of its “Good Old USA Project.”
BROWN people doing well? I’m sure that so outraged Bruce Hall that he had to start this Good Old USA Project. MAGA!
Mystery Meat! Little Brucie boy’s cute term for the fact that little Brucie is too lazy to read what Harris is proposing for tax policy. I do not recall little Brucie boy whining that the provisions of that overly complicated 2017 tax cut for rich people were not revealed until this convoluted tax plan became law. And we thought little Brucie boy hates complicated tax law unless it is the MAGA cause.
Can we test Brucie’s shallow knowledge by asking him what FDII is and why it is in effect an illegal trade subsidy? Awww – Brucie has no clue. And that GILTI mess which still has international tax people giggling. Multinationals are “GILTI” of tax evasion? Who knew?
No – the 2017 tax cut was such Mystery Meat could give you ecoli. But Bruce Hall eats it up!
When do we acknowledge that the Biden/Harris admin has produced a healthy growing U.S. economy that is the envy of the world? Of course, the House GOP which has spent millions on useless investigations on the Bidens now wants to shutdown government again about some B.S. about undocumented migrants voting – just FYI – check your state laws – undocumented migrants can not vote. Every one of these do-nothing GOPers need to be voted out of office – https://www.yahoo.com/news/house-gop-leaders-weigh-options-130000538.html
“the House GOP which has spent millions on useless investigations on the Bidens now”
Well – Mike Johnson calls this the full employment act for corrupt lawyers.
The whole concept of un-documented migrants voting is absurd. If you want to vote you have to register to vote. Registration requires documentation of citizenship with an investigation and registration of you by the authorities. The last thing an un-documented migrant want to do is contacting the authorities and have them look into their citizenship – especially since there is an almost 100% chance they would be discovered and arrested for committed a felony. That is the worst thing they can imagine happen to them – why would they take such a risk?
What is the proposed potential huge gains that would justify taking this extreme risk of being discovered (arrested and thrown out of US)? Being able to vote for Biden?
I just thought I would leave this here, to see if it is a good hypothesis about CPI starting tomorrow.
There may be some likely good news about rent. Even though he is a DOOOMer and calls for a new recession about every nine months, I always read Mike Shedlock because he frequently finds interesting sources of data, and he always makes me think.
This morning he highlighted the “Philadelphia Fed All Tenants Regressed Rent Index,” which is just what it sounds like. It includes all rentals, not just new leases, and estimates the quarterly and YoY change in them. Since this is closer to what goes into the CPI for rent, it should track more closely.
He doesn’t provide any link, but I found the data, and here it is:
https://www.bls.gov/pir/ntr/NewTenantRentIndex2024q2.xlsx
It is updated quarterly, so the last info is for Q2. I compared it with CPI for rent of primary residence, and it appears to lead the CPI by about a quarter or so.
As of Q2, the median likely YoY increase in rent was 3.9%. Which is of particular interest, because since last September CPI for rent is already up 4.0% through July. Which means that the Philadelphia Fed is forecasting the average m/m CPI for rent of 0.0% for the next few months. That’s in comparison with 0.5% monthly increases in the CPI for rent in the last five months of 2023.
If true, that will bring headline and core CPI down towards 2% in a hurry! Will be interesting to watch on Wednesday.
We are coming into the Social Security COLA adjustment period. A cooling in rental costs would be welcome, but a downside wobble would be unfortunate right now.
Thanks for pointing this out.
Ha, ha. The debate moderators even go into the Springfield missing cats case.
We have a lot of posters on poles around my neighborhood for missing cats. It’s coyotes. They find little Fifi wandering around at night to be an irresistible little snack.
And here it is directly from the Springfield News-Sun from last year:
“Clark County (Springfield) residents have reported coyote sightings recently via social media, but a state official said the animals might simply appear more visible because of the time of year … it’s fairly common throughout the state, urban environment, rural environment”
“Police posted a notice that said coyotes usually grow to between 25-35 pounds and normally feed on small mammals such as rabbits and mice. But they have been known to kill small dogs and cats as well.”
https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/clark-county-residents-spot-coyotes-in-area/EZCVBTWIBBFWNLB6FNWZZVHH6Q/
But never let the truth get into the way of a racist lie.