Per Capita Growth under Trump vs. Biden

Growth in the first three years of Biden was 3.0%, vs 2.1% under Trump (pre-pandemic).

Figure 1: Per capita GDP in Ch.2017$ SAAR (gray), on log scale. Orange arrow is average growth rate 2016Q4-2019Q4; blue arrow is average growth rate 2020Q4-2023Q4. NBER peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, NBER, and author’s calculations.

5 thoughts on “Per Capita Growth under Trump vs. Biden

  1. pgl

    I think it was Macroduck that was wondering who was dumping Trump Media stock:

    Trump Media shareholder UAV dumped more than 7.5 million shares
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/trump-media-shareholder-uav-dumped-more-than-7-5-million-shares/ar-AA1rgUTH?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6ddeaf732dce406aba424d79736a879a&ei=7

    United Atlantic Ventures LLC, a major shareholder in Trump Media, has sold or otherwise gotten rid of more than 7.5 million shares in the company, according to a regulatory filing. UAV, whose managing member is former “Apprentice” contestant Andrew Litinsky, owned 7,525,000 shares of Trump Media as of March 25, which represented 5.5% of the then-outstanding shares in the company, according to the 13G filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Reply
    1. Ivan

      A most interesting game of chicken has begun. Who dare to hold onto the stock the longest. Who dares to become the target of Trumps anger (and retribution). There are likely to be some who are scared of Trump now, but will sell as soon as they are sure he will not become President. Who can afford to hold on until the election. Who is on margin and may be called to sell no matter what – and at what price point.

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  2. pgl

    I wonder if lying Larry Kudlow read this. I’m sure he’d be happy you did only the first three years of Trump (like Trump had no responsibility for that mishandling of the pandemic after all) but he would insist Biden get no credit for the income per capita growth coming out of Trump’s disaster. And remember – the Faux News fan boys think Larry is an actual economist!

    Reply
    1. Ivan

      There are a lot of ways to slice the GDP Turkey after you have seen the data and decided what you want to “prove”. When it comes to assigning an economic parameter to a President I like to cut out the first quarter of his first year. There is very little time for his policies to be implemented and take effects in the first quarter (you could even argue to ignore the first two quarters). But it would be critical that you do it consistently every time regardless of what narratives are helped or hurt. COVID effects should be counted from first quarter of 2020 but it’s a little fluid as to how far from there you would blame/credit it for changes in a parameter.

      Menzie has chosen to just do the first 3 years of a presidency and that certainly avoids accusations of cherry-picking time periods. It also prevents any excuses from the Trump camp that its was all due to COVID (when he performs poorly in a given parameter).

      But you are absolutely right that the agenda driven “pretend economists” always will have a field day by claiming that anything positive during Biden can be explained away with some kind of COVID “lift” Similarly partisans on the other side may explain anything positive during Trump with his absurd government deficits in a time of growth. Unfortunately, both of those arguments do have some anchoring in real economics, and it takes a lot of dissecting, by true professionals, to find out how much of a given effect can be explained by that one (of dozens) inputs.

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