Part 1,434,237. (Previously [1] [2] [3][4][5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] ) Remember EJ Antoni, declaring a recession occurring in 2022H1?
In terms of how we define it or what marks a recession, the basic understanding is that when the economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters, so three months, and then another three months, that’s a recession. The reason that the White House has been making a lot of hay of, oh, that’s not official definition, blah, blah, blah. Okay. I suppose there is no technical official definition, but I’ve taught plenty of economics courses. That was what we used in every single class. That’s what you’ll see in most, if not all economics textbooks. That’s been the understanding for the last 100 years. So the idea that this is somehow new or not true, I dismiss that out of hand.
Well, what was two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth has been wiped away by the annual revision.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (sky blue), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP, GDO based on 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update. Source: BEA, 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, Philadelphia Fed, author’s calculations.
According to GDP, there was one quarter of negative growth in 2022Q1; using GDO or GDP+, there were no quarters of negative growth. In addition, the measure of aggregate demand (I use final sales) only shows one quarter of negative growth as well.
Figure 2: Final sales (brown), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update.
Faux News invites EJ Antoni aka fake PhD to say Harris is not living in the real world when she wants to raise the corporate tax rate. EJ’s economic argument? He had none of course.
“the basic understanding is that when the economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters, so three months, and then another three months, that’s a recession.”
Seriously? This clown pretends to have a PhD in economics and it turns out he is dumber than Steven Koptis!
How much would Trump’s plans for deportations, tariffs, and the Fed damage the US economy?
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/how-much-would-trumps-plans-deportations-tariffs-and-fed-damage-us
Former president Donald Trump is campaigning for reelection on promises that Americans’ lives would improve greatly if he wins a second term. “Under my plan, incomes will skyrocket, inflation will vanish completely, jobs will come roaring back, and the middle class will prosper like never, ever before,” he told the Republican convention in July. Several of the policies he is promoting, however, would have the opposite effects, according to research detailed in our new PIIE Working Paper, “The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency,” and summarized here.
https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2024/international-economic-implications-second-trump-presidency
The international economic implications of a second Trump presidency
Time to read up!