Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).
Here’s the diffusion index (mean at 25) for 3 month unemployment rate change.
Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
The dashed line is Wells Fargo’s assessment of the threshold for national recession based on this indicator.
How’s nonfarm payroll employment doing? Here’s the m/m change, by state.
Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
Month-on-Month figures are noisy, so here are year-on-year (with battleground states outlined in blue):
Source: BLS, 20 Sept 2024, as edited by author.
For reference, y/y national NFP growth was 1.5%. Hence, five of seven battleground states were above the national average, with Michigan lagging.
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Isn’t it the case that labor force participation in absolute terms is rising at a rate somewhat faster than employment? Not surprising when we have immigration making sure our economic boom continues.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/fact-check-photo-doesn-t-show-harris-attending-party-with-sean-diddy-combs/ar-AA1qNwjy?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Fact Check: Photo Doesn’t Show Harris Attending Party With Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs
‘The man photographed alongside Harris was Montel Williams, a television host and actor, not Combs. The hip-hop mogul’s face was edited into the picture, replacing Williams’.’
Hey – to the racists who back Trump it’s all blacks … Montel Williams and Sean Combs – all look alike. At the end of the day all Trump and Vance have are insults, racism, and blatant and disgusting lies. MAGA.
Off topic – Congressman Matt “Short-Eyes” Gaetz and the evidence:
https://www.notus.org/florida/new-court-filings-matt-gaetz-dorworth-sex-party
Documents which had been prepared in an earlier case have now been submitted in court, confirm that Short-Eyes (aka “Tubby” – he has several aliases) was at a sex party where illegal drugs were in use and a teenage girl was running around naked. The host of the party was Tubby’s currently-incarcerated lobbyist friend Chris Dorworth.
But he’ll still win re-election. That’s who we are now.
Oh, I should have mentioned –
The under-aged girl that Gaetz allegedly carried across state lines to engage in prostitution? She was at the party. Still not clear why the Justice Department declined to prosecute Short Eyes in that case.
Off topic – Vance fills in some blanks on Trumps “concepts of a plan” to replace Obamacare:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-health-plan-charge-more-preexisting-conditions-concept-plan-j-d-vance.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/health-plan-floated-jd-vance-174804288.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/09/20/vance-health-care-affordable-care-act/
Insurance companies would be allowed to charge higher premiums to people with expensive health care needs and pre-existing conditions, including pregnancy. So this is essentially “make health insurance better by making it more expensive”. Good to know.
Health insurance is unlike most other forms of insurance in that most other forms insure against an event, not a condition. Insurance companies like insuring against events because the pay-out is more certain.* Cancer treatment and heart disease just go on and on! So annoying. Why not take the risk out of insurance by shifting it onto sick people and pregnant women, where it belongs.
*Though not always. The owner of the World Trade Center successfully argued that two airplanes amounted to two insured events, and made out like a bandit on an act of terrorism.
A bit of “Black Nazi” electoral math:
The “polls only” map map at 270-to-win show Harris with 226 electoral votes to Trump’s 182. There are 9 states listed as toss-ups, accounting for 130 votes. A toss-up is counted for any state where recent polling averages show a margin of less than 5 ppts between Harris and Trump. If one distributes those toss-up states’ votes according to who leads in recent polls, never mind the margin, Harris has 276 votes, only 6 more than needed to win. There’s a pretty high likelihood things won’t work out that way.
Trump leads in North Carolina, where the self-proclaimed “Black Nazi” is running for the U.S. Senate as a Republican, by an average of only 0.6%. North Carolina carries 16 electoral votes. If Harris takes North Carolina, that 276 tally becomes 292 – much more comfortable.
By the way, North Carolina Republicans have gone to the courts to try to prevent as many college students as possible from voting – a sign of desperation. They have so far lost those cases.