Can we use national employment to nowcast Wisconsin employment? This endeavor is somewhat complicated by the pandemic. With DWD’s release today, we can evaluate the fit of the model.
Figure 1: Wisconsin NFP employment, August release (bold blue), July (light blue), nowcast based on US NFP 2021M07-2024M06 (red), +/- 1 std error bands. Source: BLS, DWD, author’s calculations.
Point estimate of the nowcast is 3044.1 thousand, [3039, 3049] is the 68% prediction interval, while the actual (preliminary) is 3047.3 thousand.
The nowcast is based on this single equation ECM:
The Wisconsin Dept of Revenue Economic Outlook forecast of August indicated 3038.1 thousand NFP employment for Q3 on average.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
Trump Media stock now down to $13.70 a share.
First its my Trump stock – what’s next my bump-stock?
Just kidding – I’m not stupid enough to own either.
A now-banned former commenter here regularly accused other commenters of Schadenfreude for simply insisting on the truth.
Today? Yeah, today I’ll cop to it.
By the way, PredictIt now has Harris priced at 58 cents, Trump at 46 – strongest bet for Harris so far.
I’m drinking now, I’m looking all over hell to find comments I made about my former workplace in China, as I’m drinking and searching I can’t decide if I’m angry at Menzie for deleting them or thankful he took them off. I think it tells me Menzie is so great at “finding that fine line” at which I’m pissed or grateful towards him. I think he “gets” it. And my feelings toward things 2001—2008.
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The short squeeze must be on its way. The first week after Trump was allowed to sell was such an obvious target for shorts that someone must have decided to try a short squeeze.