A comparison:
Figure 1: CPI (blue), chained CPI (light blue), CPI for wage earners (tan), HICP (red), PCE deflator (teal), PCE deflator – market based (purple), all 2021M01=1.0. HICP seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. Source: BLS, BEA, and author’s calculations.
It took over 3.5 years for prices to rise by 19%? And Trump’s latest ad said we had a 19% (per annum) inflation rate. Who wrote that stupid ad? Oh yea – Bruce Hall!
In reply to your Baa chart rather than this comment, a little disaggregation:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xeN3
I’ve left out the funds rate, which is the biggest driver of the rise in corporate borrowing costs, to avoid clutter. The corporate/Treasury spread is tiny, a sign of health. The term spread is positive, but historically very low. Whatever it was that drove the collapse in term premium is still mostly in effect – probably partly a sign of health, partly demographics.
Off topic – FOMC and NAIRU:
https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HAY0Z5AVBS0EWDGTJPQ0S8W7
The authors reviewed 120 public statements from Fed policy makers for references to NAIRU over time. They find that the Powell Fed has mostly stopped relying on NAIRU, whereas Yellen was quite devoted to it. The authors note that the change in emphasis coincided with the adoption of a new policy framework.
The authors conclude that a change in personnel seems to have allowed a change in focus. They argue that the new framework leads to easier monetary policy.
The review includes statements in 2022, but not beyond. I would be curious to know what their analysis would make of the focus on the risk of a wage/price spiral during the recent period of tight policy: Is this a deviation back toward a focus on NAIRU? Does a renewed focus on NAIRU explain running policy tighter than recommended by the Taylor rule, contrary to their view that the new framework leads to easier policy?
Anyhow, this looks to be competently executed and useful, though it leaves out the most recent period.
so the trump Madison square garden fiasco is simply a preview of things to come. trump lets his true feelings about Puerto Rico show. he cares not one bit for the island and its people. he demonstrated that when the hurricane hit a few years ago, and he really did very little but blame them for the hurricane damage. if you vote for trump, thinking he will support you, be warned. trump has shown he will not help Puerto Rican’s one bit, whether you vote for him or not. so if you vote for trump, prepared to be used and abused after the election. fair warning to those thinking a vote for trump is “winning”. his disdain for anybody different than himself is amazing.
Alas we had to endure lying Bruce Hall going on and on with Trumpian spin the other day. Something about Biden’s tariffs being higher than Trump’s tariffs. Well on a few goods yes but Brucie wants us to believe – without a shred of evidence – that Biden’s tariff rates are higher than Trump’s tariff rates.
I went to FRED to check on the actual DATA for 2019 v. 2023. And it seems tariff revenues were only $77.75 billion in 2019 (yes Trump LIED when he said he collected hundreds of billions on tariffs on Chinese goods alone) but were $81.63 billion in 2023. So does Brucie boy finally win an argument? As Lou Corso might say NOT SO FAST.
Imports were $3116.68 billion in 2019 implying an average tariff rate = 2.49%.
Imports were $3849.81 billion in 2023 implying an average tariff rate = 2.12%.
Is Brucie baby boy stupid enough to believe 2.12% exceeds 2.49%? Yes he is!
Laura Loomer launches aggressive attack on MTG after she defended Tony Hinchcliffe’s ‘jokes’ at MSG rally
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/laura-loomer-launches-aggressive-attack-on-mtg-after-she-defended-tony-hinchcliffe-s-jokes-at-msg-rally/ar-AA1t8FST?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=232c66e2918d4187927f798d4be81d5e&ei=12
Cat fight between Laura Loomer v. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Pass the popcorn!
Actually AOC was dragged into this slugfest and it seems AOC came out the winner!
Vance is the gift that keeps on giving!
JD Vance Says He’s ‘So Over’ Being Offended By Racist Jokes
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jd-vance-says-he-s-so-over-being-offended-by-racist-jokes/ar-AA1t6k4F?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) said Monday that he hadn’t heard the offensive remark about Puerto Rico a comedian made at former President Donald Trump’s rally on Sunday, but he said even if was a “stupid racist joke,” he was “so over” people getting offended at “every little thing.”
Hey hard working Haitian in Springfield. Get over my comment about you eating the dogs and the cats. Hey Mexicans – get over Trump calling your rapists and drug dealers. Hey blacks – get over the jokes about you being lazy and craving watermelons. Hey ladies – get over being called stupid baby factories or cat ladies.
Ah but do not dare call little JD “weird”!
Having been to Madison Square Garden, I have to admit it is big for a basketball arena. Maximum capacity is 19,500.
But according to Trump – there were 200,000 people at his racist rally. Ten people per seat. Yea – right!
When Peter St Onge (Bruce Hall’s favorite economist) said Trump’s chaotic fiscal policy ideas would lead to double digit growth, I noted the only way that works is starting with a massive 2025 depression and then recovering from this fiasco. Wow – this is actually the Steve Bannon plan!
https://x.com/brianbeutler/status/1851271462268567665
An important story here for the campaign press corps. Trump’s top backer, whom Trump has promised to hand this very remit, acknowledges the plan is to crash the economy and markets so they can rebuild society in MAGA’s image. I don’t think most Trump voters were in on that plan!