GDPNow up from 2.5% on 10/1 to 3.2% on 10/8 (q/q AR), on the basis of auto sales and employment situation releases.
Source: Atlanta Fed, accessed 10/8/2024.
This is what other nowcasts/tracking estimates are indicating.
Figure 4: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median iterated off of 3rd release (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 10/8 (light blue open square), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/20 (red triangles), St Louis Fed news nowcast as of 10/4 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 10/8 (orange +), FT-Booth as of 9/14 iterated off of 3rd release (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP, except for Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and author’s calculations.
At 22 days to the 2024Q3 advance release (on October 30), the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow has been about as accurate as the Bloomberg consensus, at least in pre-pandemic days. Here’s DeutscheBank’s 2019 comparison.
Source: Luzzetti, et al. “Tracking the GDP trackers,” Deutsche Bank US Economic Perspectives, 24 July 2019.
The NY Fed nowcast has been substantially revamped, so the MAE numbers shown above are no longer relevant.
For what it’s worth, Polymetrics places odds of a negative 2024Q3 advance release at 2% as of 1:14 CT.
Gee – I wonder how Faux News and their favorite troll EJ Antoni will spin this as evidence of the Biden-Harris recession!
Hey – the government in 2020 never sent me testing devices. But I hear that Trump sent Bruce Hall plenty of bleach!
Harris Seizes on Claims That Trump Sent Putin Covid-Test Devices
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/harris-seizes-on-claims-that-trump-sent-putin-covid-test-devices/ar-AA1rUy7I?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=32f14966d80c4e6fbd807cab7e4a4a75&ei=14
Kamala Harris sought to capitalize on reporting from a new book by journalist Bob Woodward that alleges former President Donald Trump while in office sent Russian President Vladimir Putin Covid-19 testing devices during the height of the pandemic. “That is just the most recent, stark example of who Donald Trump is,” Harris said Tuesday in an interview on The Howard Stern Show. The vice president said people were “scrambling to get these kits” during the pandemic, adding, “And this guy who is president of the United States is sending them to Russia, to a murderous dictator, for his personal use?” The book from the renowned journalist of Watergate fame reports that Trump, while president in 2020, secretly sent Putin Abbott Covid testing machines when the devices were scarce, according to CNN.
Off topic – Japan’s new guy:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/10/08/japan/politics/japan-pm-ishiba-asian-nato/
Ishiba came to office urging a NATO-like mutual defense organization for Asea (excluding China and North Korea). Looks like that won’t happen anytime soon, because other parties in his government won’t go along. Ishida has indicated he will continue to work in that direction. Part of Ishiba’s regional mutual defense plan was (is) to install nuclear weapons across the region as a counterbalance to North Korean and Chinese nukes. Taiwan would probably have been included in the defense pact; Ishiba has mentioned forming a defense alliance with Taiwan.
Since PM Abe began increasing Japan’s self-defense capacity a little over two decades ago, most subsequent PMs have continued in a similar vein.
Ishiba has now suggested making gradual progress toward a regional defense pact by beginning with the Philippines – an obvious choice. Abe’s WWII denialism had made such a pact impossible, but Abe is long gone.
There are some pretty obvious economic and trade implications to a defense organization based on mutual defense against China. Us-or-them strategic trade and investment choices are a natural outgrowth of defense pacts – very much contrary to China’s long-standing plans. Slower regional growth in output, trade and cross-border investment would be likely results.
Implications for military spending are less clear to me, but maybe not to a specialist. My guess is that mutual defense reduces the need for any one country to spend on its military, as long as that mutual defense is seen as binding. China, on the other hand, would need to increase military spending to counter the joint strength of its combined rivals.
Nuclear escalation would be a rotten result, but there are models for preventing run-away escalation, once relative balance is attained. North Korea’s motives seem unlike those of other nuclear powers, so may not fit the NATO/Warsaw Pact pattern.