From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024.

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Administration (light blue square), SPF median (green), GDPNow of 1/16 (blue inverted triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Nowcast level calculated by iterating on relevant Q3 GDP level. A CSource: BEA 2023Q3 3rd release, Philadelphia Fed, FT-Booth macroeconomists December survey, Atlanta Fed (1/16), and author’s calculations.

The administration’s forecast is pretty close to the SPF November survey (taken around the same time), so no surprises there. Interestingly, the December FT-Booth, incorporating more information on Q3 GDP is on a higher trajectory, as is the nowcast for Q4.

The Q4 Atlanta Fed Nowcast as of 1/16 is 3%. New number on 1/17.