Outpacing ERS forecast. Implied futures suggest higher prices yet.
Figure 1: Top panel – Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (blue, left scale), ERS forecast of January 2025 for end 2024 (blue square, left scale), both in $, and PPI for fresh eggs (tan, right scale), 1991M12=100. Bottom panel: Trading Economics futures price for dozen eggs (blue), and TradingEconomics model and analyst based forecast (gray). Source: BLS, ERS, TradingEconomics.com.
As for grocery prices overall, there was no decline recorded in January. Rather the CPI component for food at home rose m/m 5.5% (annualized).
Figure 2: CPI for food at home (black), USDA Economic Research Service forecast of January 2025 (blue square), 95% confidence interval (blue +). Source: BLS via FRED, ERS, author’s calculations.
Eggs are sticky: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DEkb
I’ll be here all week.
Elon Musk is just a bald faced liar. Here’s the latest from his techbro kids riffling through the Treasury’s underwear drawer:
Musk says: “Reuters was paid millions of dollars by the US government for “large scale social deception”. That is literally what it says on the purchase order! They’re a total scam.” Ooh, sounds scary. And Trump is demanding he get the money back.
What Musk didn’t tell you:
1. Literally what was on the purchase order was “Active Social Engineering Defense (ASED), Large Scale Social Deception (LSD).” You see, it was research about defense against large scale deception. Musk lied to you about the purchase order to make you think it was something else.
2. The purchase order was not to Reuters the news agency. It was to a separate company Thomson Reuters Special Services, which specializes in fraud detection and risk management — cyber threats. Musk misled you again.
3. And the kicker is that the contract was awarded in 2018 during the Trump administration. So money that Trump spent, he now wants back. Musk didn’t tell you that part either.
Do not ever believe a single word out of Elon Musk’s mouth. He’s a sociopathic liar.