The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey. The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median 2025 GDP growth is 1.7%, down from 2.1% in the December SEP.

Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), February SPF (light blue), March FT-Booth median (blue square), FOMC SEP median (pink square), Chinn forecast (red triangle), all bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, FT-Booth, Federal Reserve, author’s calculations.

My current growth forecast (red triangle) is the same as what I penciled back in December; in other words, I thought the Trump policies would be as bad as they turned out to be (at least with respect to economic policy). I based the forecast on subtracting the McKibben et al. estimates from pre-Trump baseline.

An FT article on the survey is here.