No. Yes/No. Yes.
Compare the U.Michigan survey to SF News Sentiment index and Conference Board:
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), SF Fed News Sentiment index (light green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. April U.Mich. observation is preliminary; April SF Fed News Sentiment Index for data through April 6. Source: U.Michigan, Conference Board, SF Fed, and author’s calculations.
Despite the 21 point drop from February peak, Republicans still view the outlook more favorably than they did in October (25.9 pts). On the other hand, Democrats have evidenced a sharp drop relative to October (65.2 pts), as have Independents (24.8).
Figure 2: U.Michigan Consumer Expectations overall (bold black), for Democrats (light blue), from Republicans (red). April observations are preliminary. Source: U.Michigan.
What about the split in inflation expectations. I pull a graph from the report released today:
Source: U.Michigan Survey of Consumers, 11 April 2025.
Inflation expectations have risen across the board (with Republicans rising from 0%(!!!) at the one year horizon.
Off topic – we’ve got bigger problems:
https://www.intellinews.com/siberian-permafrost-melt-acceleration-could-release-two-times-more-co-into-the-atmosphere-than-all-of-humanity-since-the-dawn-of-history-376114/?source=russia
Among the tipping points threatening to accelerate climate change, melting of permafrost is a big one, and is already underway. Because the arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the world, CO2 (and methane – the article leaves out methane) sequestered in permafrost is leaking into the atmosphere. The more the Arctic warms, the faster permafrost melts.
The estimate highlighted in the article is that melting permafrost will release twice as much CO2 into the atmosphere by 2100 as humans have in all of history. So…that’s bad.
Also left out of the article is that other climate change tipping points will be triggered as temperatures increase in response to the melting of the permafrost.
Enjoy those SUVs.
I went to the U. Michigan site and checked the historical source data. Two things popped out:
1. Although it is higher than during Biden’s presidency, GOP sentiment is lower now than at *any point during T—-p’s first term* until after the 2020 election.
2. Sentiment among independents is also lower now than at any point in the past 20 years, including during the Great Recession.