The egg crisis of 2025 is not over yet — consider what happens if tariffs are put on egg imports?
Figure 1: Price of dozen eggs, retail, $ (blue, left log scale), ERS forecast of February (light blue inverted triangle), ERS forecast of March (blue square), PPI for large eggs n.s.a. (brown, right log scale), TradingEconomics implied forecast of 4/11/2025 (light brown square, right log scale). Source: BLS, USDA ERS, TradingEconomics and author’s calculations.
The ERS forecasts are based on time series models without judgmental adds, so does not incorporate the potential impact of tariffs. TradingEconomics is a partly judgmental forecast.
The elevated level of egg imports is part of a Trump administration plan to lower egg prices. So…imports help lower prices of eggs, but otherwise are not good for prices of consumer goods overall. Hmm.
Inflation, overall, is calm. While there is trepidation about the direction of the economy among those who follow the news, the reality is that day-to-day experiences haven’t reflected inflation as a major issue… presently.
https://eggprices.org/national-data
Perhaps that is because energy prices are more visible and budget affecting than egg prices for many people. Year-over-year gasoline prices are down over 40 cents per gallon ($2.90 at local Costco).
https://gasprices.aaa.com
Energy prices, overall, are relatively tame right now. Natural gas prices are up somewhat while electricity is a mixed bag regionally, but the heating season is ending so the impact is less.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php
You have to drive and you have to heat/cool your home, but you don’t have to eat eggs.
For those who pine for price levels pre-Biden, that’s just not going to happen.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/price-tracker/