From NABE two days ago, responses pre- and post-“Liberation Day”:
From the NABE statement:
The initial April 2025 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 41 professional forecasters. The initial survey, covering the outlook for 2025 and 2026, was conducted March 18-25, 2025. In order to capture rapidly changing economic conditions, a flash survey was conducted April 7-9, 2025, and presents the consensus 2025-2026 macroeconomic forecast of 32 professional forecasters out of the 41 initially surveyed.
the chart shows recess prob lower than 50%
Jseydl: The bars indicate the percent of respondents that ascribe a greater than 50% probability of a recession within the year.
oh i see, thanks
Looks like NABE respondents think housing will buffer CPI against the inflationary effects of tariffs. Tough on Social Security recipients.
“Tough on Social Security recipients.”
No worries. Elon and his DOUCHEmonkeys are working hard to reduce the number of recipients.
They found 1 billion non-existing people in the system