Macro impact doesn’t seem large according to Yale Budget Lab, but I can hardly wait to see how much a 50% increase in Ozempic and Wegovy prices will go over with the public.
Source: FT.
There is speculation that Mr. Trump is using one of a a similar GLP-1 agonist medication, but we can’t be certain.
The announcement of a 50% tariff on EU goods imports (up from 10%) would seem to put to rest the proposition that the trade war has settled down on something like a 10% universal rate.
Expect more trade policy uncertainty indices to kick up…
yeah, except…
https://olin.wustl.edu/about/news-and-media/news/2022/09/olin-research-shows-us-does-indeed-have-capacity-to-manufacture-essential-drugs.php
Brucey, you have once again grabbed a link that you don’t seem to understand and pretended it is evidence that your cult leader’s ideas are just dandy. They aren’t. We ain’t talking about dolls and pencils here. We’re talking about peoples lives. Higher prices for medicines, and scarcity, are the inevitable result of tariffs.
As your link points out, President Biden did take steps to improve capacity in the domestic drug industry, in response to DRUG SHORTAGES during the early days of Covid. So we have excess capacity – on paper – but shortages in reality. And you suggest that making imports harder to get is a good idea. Smart.
A good many inputs to drug production would need to be imported if all U.S. drug needs were met domestically, so tariffs would still be a big problem.
As the Atlanta Fed points out, the U.S. imports a lot of drugs because imports are less expensive:
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/06/the-decline-of-u-s-pharmaceutical-production/
Medicine is more expensive in the U.S. than just about anywhere in the world, even with cheap imports. You think tariffs, aimed at bringing production home by driving up the cost of imports, are a good idea?
Next, your link has to do with generics. Wegovy isn’t generic, and won’t be for some years. Yes, generics make up about 90% of domestic drug consumption, but aspirin, acetaminophen, amoxicillin and the like make up a big chunk of that 90%. Lots of life-saving stuff isn’t generic. Anything non-generic might take much longer to begin producing domestically – we don’t know from this study.
Here’s a little caution about the study you cite – it seems optimistic about an industry that’s inherently inefficient in its use of capital equipment. Batch processing, for instance, means that a large parts of the production line are idle much of the time, while a batch makes its way through the process. Drug factories are unlikely to get anywhere near the roughly 85% capacity use rate common across manufacturing. That’s not a problem that tariffs can solve.
Also, the study you link to notes that between 24 and 36 month would be needed for most of the factories it surveyed before new production could be brought on line. So two or three years of scarcity. Is that really what you want?
Once again, you immediately go to “Trump; bad”.
First of all, the Biden administration (among others) identified the strategic weakness in the supply chain for medicines and invested billions toward rectifying that. Secondly, the production capacity already exists within the pharmaceutical industry to ramp up production of critical medicines. Thirdly, Trump is incentivizing production within the US. Forthly, “Wegovy” is a terrible drug with terrible side effects and is a terrible alternative to a healthy diet and exercise so a better example might be cancer medications.
https://www.drugs.com/sfx/wegovy-side-effects.html
2020:
https://medecon.org/chinas-stranglehold-on-pharmaceuticals-threatens-americans-health-and-u-s-national-security/
2025:
https://nypost.com/2025/04/15/opinion/chinas-chokehold-on-us-medicine-is-risking-american-lives/
So, explain why you are against these actions… other than TDS.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/05/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-actions-to-reduce-regulatory-barriers-to-domestic-pharmaceutical-manufacturing/
bruce, it is very clear that the reason those facilities are idle is because the drug companies can produce the drug cheaper overseas. if they are forced to produce the drugs here, prices will increase. this will result in inflation. bruce, you are advocating for inflation. the same thing you complained about with Biden. now inflation is ok? can’t have it both ways, idiot.
No, inflation may occur, but I think supply chain reliability/security/quality is the more salient argument. We are discussing Disney character toys. Not all products are of equal importance.
obviously not discussing Disney character toys….
Also, since both Biden and Trump agree that medicines fall into the area of critical national security commodities, I’d think you’d think twice about taking up the pgl mantle denigrating onshoring for them.
bruce wants to have it both ways. because he is an idiot. bruce, your link clearly states that drug prices would increase if they were onshored. this WILL result in INFLATION. why are you so dishonest in your discussions, bruce?
it is the same dishonesty that trump displayed when he talked on the campaign trail how his wonderful tariffs would be great for the us economy. and then after the economy began to sputter with the tariff talk, he changed his argument to say there would be some pain. it is simply a dishonest argument being made. a lie. because you cannot have it both ways. only an idiot thinks so.