Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the inclusion of post-pause responses. Here’s the picture of confidence and sentiment, updated.

Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.

How much worse did the U.Michigan expectations index look in the preliminary release?

Figure 2: U.Michigan expectations, final (dark blue), and preliminary for May (light blue square). Source: U.Michigan.

Not that much worse – expectations had declined substantially even before May.