At least it’s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is more than last time)
This is what 3% looks like:
Figure 1: GDP (black), CBO (light blue), Troika inferred from Trump remarks at 3% (red squares), and May Survey of Professional Forecasters median (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 second release, CBO (January 2025), TruthSocial post of 30 May 2025, Philadelphia Fed (May 2025), and author’s calculations.
Here’s a picture of last time Trump promised something about growth (incorporating TCJA):
Figure 2: GDP (black), CBO (light blue), Troika/Administration (red square), Donald Trump (orange inverted triangle), all in bn.Ch.2009$ SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, CBO (April 2018), Economic Report of the President, 2018, CNBC, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Per https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1, GDP CAGR over Bush’s 8 years was 1.8%, over Obama’s 8 years was 2.2%, over Trump’s first 4 year term it was 2.1%, and over Biden’s 4 years it was 2.8%. But then why would I think Trump would do anything other than pick numbers out of his ass.
Growth was 3% in 2017 which was a carry over from the Obama boom. OK we had that late 2017 tax cut and guess what – growth FELL in 2018. Growth was a bit better in 2019 but does any sane person think the trade war did that?
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