See 0:35 in this FoxBusiness snippet in which he admits that by the 2-quarter rule-of-thumb we might end up being in a recession, but opines that what Americans “feel” is a better definition.
Interestingly, he makes no reference to his assertion (never retracted) that we’ve been in recession since 2022, to wit:
Source: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).
My analysis of this wildly detached-from-reality and irreproducible result here.
OK, well Americans feel bad, so does little Antoni think we are in recession? Consumer sentiment is worse than it was a year ago, when Antoni claimed we were in recession, so by his own definition, we must be in recession. Even Republicans, who usually change their expectations to conform with whatever faux news tells them, are starting to feel bad.
So while I’m not dim-witted enough to accept little Antoni’s recession definition, I’m happy to hold him to it:
– Recessions are when the public feels bad.
– Antoni said we were in recession a year ago.
– The public feels worse now than a year ago.
— We’re in an Antoni recession. QED.
Off topic – While we shoot ourselves in the foot here at home, there are some unsettled issues elsewhere in the world. For instance, the U.S. and China are preparing for war over Taiwan, apparently in a big way on both sides, with maybe a 2027 deadline. “Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum” and all that, but still, this ain’t good:
https://www.bairdmaritime.com/security/opinion-us-prepares-for-long-war-with-china-that-might-hit-its-bases-homeland
By the way, the author, Peter Apps, is the “Deterring Armageddon” guy, not the “Show Me the Bodies” guy.