Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers.

Figure 1: GDP (black), SPF May median (tan), GDPNow of 5/30 (blue square), GS of 5/30 (red inverted triangle), and NY Fed of 5/30 (light green triangle). Source: BEA 2025Q1 second release, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

FInal sales to private domestic purchasers, which Furman has tagged as a better indicator of momentum in the economy than either final sales or GDP, is nowcasted to grow at roughly the same pace in Q2, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: FInal sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black) and GDPNow of 5/30 (blue square), both in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 second release, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.

GDPNow thus suggests continued demand growth in 2025Q2.