From NABE today:
Here’s a comparison to other forecasts.
Figure 1: GDP (black), May SPF (light blue), April WSJ (Red), March FT-Booth (green triangle), IMF April WEO (red square), May NABE (brown inverted triangle), GDPNow of 5/16 (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ, FT-Booth macroeconomists survey, IMF WEO, NABE, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
Proportion of respondents believing the probability of recession exceeds 50% in 2025 rose from 8% (April) to 37% (May).
Economist toady Kevin Hassett today on Fox: “What’s going to happen is there’s going to be a lot of trade deals and firms are going to lift off. All of America knows that the golden age is coming. I think you are going to look at a second half of the year will be way north of 3% growth, probably north of 4%.”
Ooh, Kevin, are you willing to put money on that bet? I’ll take the under.
Heck, I would even take odds on getting to DOW 36,000 — again.