Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
A Cost-Push Shock?
Oil prices jump:
13 thoughts on “A Cost-Push Shock?”
Macroduck
Off topic – Iran and the future of the region:
Oner at Naked Capitalism, Yves Smith is speculating about the fall of Iran. Does anyone see much likelihood of Iran’s government falling?
There is certainly a good bit of public disaffection, so maybe Israel is creating an opportunity for insurrection. A land war between the two, on Iranian soil, seems unlikely for several reasons.
Any non-dogmantic thoughts?
Anonymous
Knocking off Khameini is not like killing Diem..
Rumors that many of the “bombings” that killed ranking officers and scientists were by shoulder fired anti tank rounds and FPV drones. Theory is Mossad infiltrators and Iranian dissidents.
There is MEK, sponsored by John McCain and ilk. Small Sunni group in west Iran, on everyone’s terrorist list. Likely no popular support even among liberal Shi’a.
Trump has sent tactical aircraft to Prince Sultan Saudi air base east of central Iraq. This base was used in 1990 to 1991 by U S in Desert Storm but not offered to Bush in 2003.
Attacks on Iran from Saudi Arabia will probably open ARAMCO up to missiles from Yemen and Iran.
US has been trying to get at Iran since 1979.
Macroduck
Turns out, it’s not just hair-on-fire internet blatherers who think regime change is the underlying goal of Israel’s airwar in Iran:
Happened in Syria. Back during the Arab (not Persian) Spring, regime change was in the air.
What happens if Iran’s religious regime falls? Afghanistan all over again? Russia and China have a go at nation building? Turkey aims at permanent instability, a failed state? Saudi Arabia aims at permanent instability. Turkey and Saudi Arabia make common cause or struggle for control of the destabilization effort? Reza Pahlavi?
Macroduck
Attacks against civilian infrastructure and against the civilian population are consistent with an effort at regime change. Regime change could raise Israeli war planners’ hope that decades-long retaliation may be avoided.
Macroduck
Remember all those maps of the distribution of ethnic groups in Iraq and Persia in support of understanding political divisions? Here’s a map that might become the focus of attention soon:
I suspect we’ll betreated to analysis of which groups align with which, and align with, or against, which other countries. Druze with Israel, Shia with Iraq, Kurds against Turkey…
Macroduck
“…ethnic groups in Iraq and SYRIA…” for thumbs’ sake!
baffling
i have to ask, why is it always a maga hooligan who takes a gun and commits a heinous crime? what is broken in the maga mind that allows them to justify such action. why would bruce hall defend the latest hooligan in minnesota, who took a lethal gun and murdered politicians in such brutal fashion? why do we have people in America who still want to defend such predators? bruce hall wants to throw a bunch of peaceful demonstrators in LA into jail, while lionizing people like the minnesota murderer and january 6 insurrectionists. did people like bruce consume too much lead growing up? what distorted such a brain? evilness in the world was just witnessed in Minnesota.
Macroduck
The timidity of the press is once again on display. Most major news outlets pretended that the demonstrations in LA were largely unruly and that demonstrators provoked uniformed troops. The Aussie reporter was shot with a rubber bullet “in the crossfire” when only uniformed troops were firing.
Now, a right-wing crank, who had a hit-list of Democratic politicians and a vendeta against reproductive choice doesn’t seem to have a political motivation or allegiance.
And our federal government keeps doing things like this to set an example for freelance goons:
“…spare capacity among OPEC and allies to pump more oil to offset any disruption is roughly equivalent to Iran’s output…”
Iran “exports over 2 million bpd of oil and fuel.”
OPEC has been working to keep prices down, in part to prevent investment in new supply elsewhere. The felon-in-chief’s claim that the U.S. (a sometimes net petroleum exporter) faces an “energy emergency” probably fits into that calculation somewhere. Israel’s attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran raise questions about OPEC’s ability to depress oil prices.
Iran has in the past threatened to attack the oil infrastructure of any OPEC member which attempts to fill the export deficit caused by attacks on Iran. Since Iran is currently asking other OPEC members to push for an end to Israel’s attacks, threats may not be the plan for now.
China takes about 40% of Iran’s petroleum exports, about 0.8 million bpd. In 2024, China imported about 11.1. million bpd, so Iran accounts for about 7%. China would have to scramble to avoid a short-term supply shortage if Iran went off line. Turkey and Iraq might have a harder time:
Off topic – Iran and the future of the region:
Oner at Naked Capitalism, Yves Smith is speculating about the fall of Iran. Does anyone see much likelihood of Iran’s government falling?
There is certainly a good bit of public disaffection, so maybe Israel is creating an opportunity for insurrection. A land war between the two, on Iranian soil, seems unlikely for several reasons.
Any non-dogmantic thoughts?
Knocking off Khameini is not like killing Diem..
Rumors that many of the “bombings” that killed ranking officers and scientists were by shoulder fired anti tank rounds and FPV drones. Theory is Mossad infiltrators and Iranian dissidents.
There is MEK, sponsored by John McCain and ilk. Small Sunni group in west Iran, on everyone’s terrorist list. Likely no popular support even among liberal Shi’a.
Trump has sent tactical aircraft to Prince Sultan Saudi air base east of central Iraq. This base was used in 1990 to 1991 by U S in Desert Storm but not offered to Bush in 2003.
Attacks on Iran from Saudi Arabia will probably open ARAMCO up to missiles from Yemen and Iran.
US has been trying to get at Iran since 1979.
Turns out, it’s not just hair-on-fire internet blatherers who think regime change is the underlying goal of Israel’s airwar in Iran:
https://archive.is/20250614051626/https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/israel-iran-strikes-regime-change-nuclear-claims/#selection-3275.0-3275.60
https://www.dawn.com/news/1917243/israels-attacks-on-iran-hint-at-a-bigger-goal-regime-change
https://www.newsweek.com/regime-change-possible-iran-opinion-2086176
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-attacks-iran-hint-bigger-goal-regime-change-2025-06-14/
Happened in Syria. Back during the Arab (not Persian) Spring, regime change was in the air.
What happens if Iran’s religious regime falls? Afghanistan all over again? Russia and China have a go at nation building? Turkey aims at permanent instability, a failed state? Saudi Arabia aims at permanent instability. Turkey and Saudi Arabia make common cause or struggle for control of the destabilization effort? Reza Pahlavi?
Attacks against civilian infrastructure and against the civilian population are consistent with an effort at regime change. Regime change could raise Israeli war planners’ hope that decades-long retaliation may be avoided.
Remember all those maps of the distribution of ethnic groups in Iraq and Persia in support of understanding political divisions? Here’s a map that might become the focus of attention soon:
https://vividmaps.com/peoples-of-iran/
I suspect we’ll betreated to analysis of which groups align with which, and align with, or against, which other countries. Druze with Israel, Shia with Iraq, Kurds against Turkey…
“…ethnic groups in Iraq and SYRIA…” for thumbs’ sake!
i have to ask, why is it always a maga hooligan who takes a gun and commits a heinous crime? what is broken in the maga mind that allows them to justify such action. why would bruce hall defend the latest hooligan in minnesota, who took a lethal gun and murdered politicians in such brutal fashion? why do we have people in America who still want to defend such predators? bruce hall wants to throw a bunch of peaceful demonstrators in LA into jail, while lionizing people like the minnesota murderer and january 6 insurrectionists. did people like bruce consume too much lead growing up? what distorted such a brain? evilness in the world was just witnessed in Minnesota.
The timidity of the press is once again on display. Most major news outlets pretended that the demonstrations in LA were largely unruly and that demonstrators provoked uniformed troops. The Aussie reporter was shot with a rubber bullet “in the crossfire” when only uniformed troops were firing.
Now, a right-wing crank, who had a hit-list of Democratic politicians and a vendeta against reproductive choice doesn’t seem to have a political motivation or allegiance.
And our federal government keeps doing things like this to set an example for freelance goons:
https://www.ft.com/content/dbcc456b-ca41-4acd-85d9-56681bdf62a9
On topic – Oil market practicalities:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-opec-struggle-cover-major-161856703.html?
“…spare capacity among OPEC and allies to pump more oil to offset any disruption is roughly equivalent to Iran’s output…”
Iran “exports over 2 million bpd of oil and fuel.”
OPEC has been working to keep prices down, in part to prevent investment in new supply elsewhere. The felon-in-chief’s claim that the U.S. (a sometimes net petroleum exporter) faces an “energy emergency” probably fits into that calculation somewhere. Israel’s attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran raise questions about OPEC’s ability to depress oil prices.
Iran has in the past threatened to attack the oil infrastructure of any OPEC member which attempts to fill the export deficit caused by attacks on Iran. Since Iran is currently asking other OPEC members to push for an end to Israel’s attacks, threats may not be the plan for now.
China takes about 40% of Iran’s petroleum exports, about 0.8 million bpd. In 2024, China imported about 11.1. million bpd, so Iran accounts for about 7%. China would have to scramble to avoid a short-term supply shortage if Iran went off line. Turkey and Iraq might have a harder time:
https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/exports-by-country
WTI at $75 is very calm.
Few think of the war games where magnetic mines are spread by numerous motor launches.
Another cruminal act aimed at instituting authoritarian rule:
https://www.ft.com/content/dbcc456b-ca41-4acd-85d9-56681bdf62a9
Held off a bit to see how this post would age. Okay then….
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-wavers-plunge-trump-mideast-090231742.html
Demand destruction, you fool.