Recall CEA has asserted that imported goods prices (incl tariffs) have fallen relative to domestically produced, based on conjoining 2017 IO tables and PCE data. I wondered whether imported goods prices and prices of close substitutes have fallen. To investigate, I do something simpler: look at steel import prices (ex-tariffs) and steel PPI (incl. tariffs).

Figure 1: Import price index for iron and steel (tan), PPI for cold rolled steel (blue), both in logs 2025M01=0. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.

Effective June 4, a 50% Section 232 tariff has been in effect, rising from the previous 25%. Since January 2025, the import price index has fallen 3.5%, while the steel/iron PPI has risen 22% (log terms). So as the 50% tariff comes into play, we should expect — on net — continued increases in the price of steel.

More discussion at NYT.