Lots of stories regarding the impact of CEA Chair’s temporary appointment to the vacancy at the Fed Board. For an insight into Dr. Miran’s views, here’s a list of his peer reviewed articles.
Peer-Reviewed Article
Fiscal policy multipliers on subnational government spending
J Clemens, S Miran – American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2012 – aeaweb.org
Balanced budget requirements lead to substantial pro-cyclicality in state government spending, with the stringency of a state’s rules driving the pace at which it must adjust to shocks. …
That’s it for what I can find. I welcome additional information.
Dissertation:
Non-Peer Reviewed Publication – Intellectual Case for a “Mar-o-Lago Accord”
Restructuring the Global Trading System: A User’s Guide
S Miran – 2024 – policycommons.netThis strategic policy essay economist Stephen Miran outlines a roadmap for how a second
Trump administration might restructure the global trading and financial system to address long…
As the appointment is “temporary”, will Miran give up his day job? Will a guy working directly for the felon-in-chief also vote on the FOMC?
I’m particularly enamored with Miran’s Mar-a-Lago Accord plan to convert foreign reserves into non-tradeable 100-year zero coupon bonds. That should go over well, particularly since Trump has done such a superb job of strengthening motivation for international cooperation.
Should also note that Miran is likely just a temporary placeholder. Trump gets another chance when Miran’s term is up at the end of January.
There is a long-standing bit of wisdom about the Fed – the Fed changed policymakers more than policymakers change the Fed. Obviously, the felon-in-chief doesn’t intend that to be the case with Miran. Problem is, Miran’s ability to influence policy – and to change the Fed – depends on his credibility within the Fed. Go along to get along and all that.
Which makes Miran’s task a tricky one. The felon doesn’t just want lower rates. He also wants to accumulate power, and to make a show of doing so. If Miran can’t produce results, he’s of little use to either goal. To produce results, he has to change the thinking of a fair number of other FOMC voters. That means looking Fed-like, which he really doesn’t. Miran’s reputation as a thinker was never all that good, and has suffered during his flirtation with the felon. He has lots of work to do to become influential inside the Fed.
Forecasts of curve steepening are already circulating – higher rates in anticipation of lower rates. Gotta love it.
Also noteworthy that Trump is replacing IRS commissioner Billy Long after just two months on the job.
It makes you wonder how bad the ask was that even a loyal toadie like Billy Long refused, causing Trump to dump him. Burning all of Trump’s and Epstein’s tax files?