So too has CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, a series pushed in the wake of the slow employment recovery from the 2001 recession. On the other hand, preliminary benchmark NFP, and NFP estimated using QCEW data continue to crawl upward.
Figure 1: Preliminary benchmark implied NFP (tan), preliminary benchmark implied using QCEW seasonally adjusted data by author (blue), ADP private employment plus BLS preliminary benchmark government employment (red), and CPS employment adjusted to NFP concept, 3 month centered moving average (green), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.
On a side note, BLS Director nominee EJ Antoni’s measure of “sustainable” employment (private employment ex-health and ex-social services) has been declining since December 2024 (using preliminary benchmark figures).
Figure 2: Private NFP minus health care and social services employment (tan), and according to implied preliminary benchmark (blue), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS and author’s calculations.
The politicized debate over employment and the economy is a sideshow to the actual economy. That’s true not just for public welfare, but also for politics. If faux news lies about crime, there’s a good chance voters can be deceived. If BLS lies about employment and inflation, faux parrots the lies and the felon-in-chief gives little Antoni a Scubby snack, voters will still know what’s really going on. Jobs and prices are a lot more obvious than crime to everybody but the unlucky few.
We who hold up the lantern of truth are doing a good thing, but that lantern isn’t what’s going to drive voting patterns. Bad policy will either overcome the resilience of the economy, or it won’t. That’s what will drive voting patterns.
Let’s just hope voting is still how we choose our lawmakers next year.