From DWD release today:
Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s, s.a. (blue). Source: BLS, DWD.
Manufacturing employment in Wisconsin is now below January 2025 levels. Tariffs have not had, so far, the salutory effect on manufacturing employment promised by President Trump.
On the other hand, nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment rose by 8600 (while civilian employment fell by 6000). Incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision, Wisconsin NFP is now 9500 above the prior peak in August 2024.
Figure 2: Wisconsin Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and implied preliminary benchmark NFP (tan), 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD.
All the Trumpian bluster about the return of manufacturing is just B.S. – The US/Wisconsin economy is geared to services and in particular healthcare and education which are growth sectors – Also, Wisconsin’s total population has been essentially flat since around 2015, with only modest net in-migration in a few recent years. The aging population (especially the large 55+ cohort) is creating a natural drag on the labor force participation rate. Wisconsin historically had one of the highest LFPRs in the country (around 70–72% in the late 1990s/early 2000s). As of 2024–25, the LFPR has slipped to about 65%, in line with national aging and worsened by reduced immigration flows and recent deportations. In the face of this reality – the Republicans in Congress are taking billions out of the healthcare system. When do we get back to dealing with reality?