Daily data from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU-trade (green, right scale). Light orange is Trump 2.0 administration; darker orange shading is shutdown. Source: policyuncertainty.com.
Betting on the shutdown length is now at 34 days, taking us through November 3 for postponed releases (no idea on delays).
One source of uncertainty is the felon-in-chief’s TACO tendency. Policy which changes whenever the felon-in-chief gets scared is highly uncertain.
So here’s the thing about choices: most of them involve striking some sort of balance. You choose to give up money for something you want, or you keep the money and do without the something.
Policies are choices. The Fed’s dual mandate is a good example, with the choice explicit – more jobs or lower inflation. Good policy making fosters some highly prized good while doing as little harm as possible, and perhaps mitigating that harm. There’s an optimization problem to solve.
The felon-in-chief does not seem to have much use for these ideas, or “ideas” in general. Still, a choice is a choice. Even felons have to strive for balance in making choices.
Turns out, the felon-in-chief owns a bundle of crypto:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2025/10/10/trump-is-now-one-of-americas-biggest-bitcoin-investors/
Crypto, as a class, had a sickeningly bad day last Friday, when the felon announced that he would impose 100% tariff on China. Then, very quickly, he unannounced those tariffs. Coincidence? Not likely. Krugman explains the connection:
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/how-crypto-became-a-trump-trade
I won’t pretend to know anything beyond what Krugman has to say. It is interesting, I think, to see the felon being boxed in on policy, just like a legitimate president would be. He pretends that he can simply order the world around, but the world plays the tune and the felon has to dance to it.
What are the constraints that have led to TACO policy making? Some obvious ones are real estate holdings in the Middle East, crypto volatility, interest rates, the stock market… Maybe I’ve missed some, but it looks like the felon’s personal wealth and the wealth of his cronies is the central constrain on policy in the felon administration.
That’s not what I’d want as constraints on policy, but a constraint is a constraint. Even if the felon is a slow and reluctant learner, he’s the TACO president – he’ll chicken out. Knowing what makes him chicken out helps understand the felon’s policy choices. What makes him chicken out is his own greed.
Many federal agencies furlough staff, halt new programs, suspend grant disbursements, etc.온카패스
Secretary Bessent: “This crazy No Kings rally this weekend, which is gonna be the farthest left, the hardest core, the most unhinged in the Democratic Party, which is a big title. No Kings equals no paychecks.”
No Kings equals no paychecks? Does that mean we need the blessing of a King to get paid? Who knows?
Remember when all the pundits said that Bessent was the adult in the room? Is dementia catching — because Bessent is spouting more Trump incomprehensible gibberish every day?
so rather than compromise, do the right thing and reopen the government. the republicans in congress have chosen not to do anything other than fire people and keep the government doors closed. the republican shutdown of the government will leave a lasting legacy on the country. republican’s can take action that reopens the government, or they can continue to sit on their hands and do nothing while the government shutdown continues. the ball is in your court republicans, you want to play ball or go home?
Off topic – Anybody else heard about Stephen Miller claiming that the felon-in-chief has plenary power over state National Guard units?
https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/what-is-plenary-authority-stephen-miller-donald-trump-cnn/65-050f2773-f146-46f7-8bb1-abcca0881859
They’re doing it, folks. The felon administration is slithering its way into position to overturn thenext presidential election.
Posse comitatus prevents the U.S. military from operating as police within the U.S. The National Guard isn’t so constrained. If state governors remain in control of their own Guard units, those units cannot be used to overturn election results or to put down protests against overturning election results.
The felon has:
– Incited insureection
– Attempted to overturn a presidential election
– Ordered the Justice Department to indict his political enemies
– Ordered National Guard units to enter cities with Democratic mayors, but never a city with a Republican mayor.
That’s the formula. Once the formula exists, the felon’s apparent deteriorating health can’t be relied on to save our democracy. The Stephen Miller-types with access to power aren’t mere drones for the felon. They want power.
The courts have regularly stopped the felon’s power grabs, so now his minions are arguing that the courts have no authority – that no one has authority – to prevent him from using the National Guard as he sees fit.
Miller cited Title 10 of the U.S. code. Two things to know about that. One is that there is no grant of plenary authority in Title 10. The other is that Title 10 lays out authority over the military, as well as the National Guard.
This claim of bogus authority could extend beyond the Guard. We don’t know. Miller stopped talking in the oddest way while claiming plenary authority for the felon. Maybe he realized he was spilling the beans. Maybe he was being his weird self and trying to be cute, maybe playing footsie with the felon’s insurrectionist supporters. In any case, claiming a non-existant power for the felon under Title 10 could turn out to be a claim of unlimited power over the U.S. military.