Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have.
Figure 1: BLS private nonfarm payroll employment, August release (blue), implied preliminary benchmark revision (light blue), ADP-Stanford Digital Lab August release (pink), ADP-Stanford Digital Lab September release (bold red), Bloomberg consensus calculated by iterating net job gain on August ADP figure (red +). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
That 32,000 loss of private-sector jobs would be added to the change in government jobs on Friday, if there were to be a BLS jobs report on Friday. The average monthly change in government jobs over the past three months was zero, with the trend downward.
By the way, the workers who took buy-outs earlier this year are no longer listed as employed, as of September 30. That’s about 100,000 jobs that will show up as lost in the October jobs report, whenever it comes out. Well, assuming it does come out; that’s exactly the sort of news the felon-in-chief likes to suppress.
I’m expecting Trump to put a 100% tariff on ADP reports unless the CEO resigns and is replaced with EJ Antoni. He’s available, I hear.