Out today:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ mean (blue), WSJ +/- 20% bounds (gray), GDPNow of 10/7 (light blue square), St. Louis nowcast of 10/10 (violet square), OMB Mid-Session Review (light green triangles), all bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed via FRED. OMB, and author’s calculations.
Only three respondents forecasted 2 or more consequitive quarters of negative growth.
Chinese exports are up over 8% from last September. it appears that trump has been bamboozled by the Chinese once again. while he has been tanking the us economy and ranting on truth social, the Chinese have simply grown and expanded their market to the rest of the world. leaving us behind.
trump may very well be the single worst international negotiator I have ever seen. no wonder china and Russia worked so hard to get him elected, twice. instead of stopping the war in Ukraine on day 1, he probably has us closer to wwIII than we have ever been. and the us economy continues to degrade under his whiplash propaganda.
Just for giggles:
“…since 18 August, companies such as Krone and the construction company Liebherr in Germany have to provide an unprecedented level of detail to customs border authorities certifying the origin, weight and value of any steel in their products right down to nuts and bolts.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/13/one-europe-biggest-farm-machinery-firms-halts-us-exports-hidden-tariffs-krone
Because we no longer practice “most favored nation” trade policy, so different tariff rates for the same item, country by country, all the parts under tariff have to be documented for any imported item, no matter how many parts there are. The process of documenting imports for tariff purposes has become vastly more complex and expensive, with no structure in place to do the documenting in most firms.
The link is to an article about a single European firm. The same story applies to U.S.-based manufacturers which buy partial assemblies overseas for inclusion in their products. If Krone no longer exports farm machinery to the U.S., International Harvester gets to make up the slack, right? A tariff success. Except that IH imports partial assemblies made of parts from around the world, just as Krone does.
Know-nothings tend to make bad policy.
In other words, it’s the friggin’ paperwork.
Remember when Republicans were against regulatory burdens on business?
Off topic – We’ve finally made it!!!:
https://www.sciencealert.com/mass-coral-die-offs-confirm-first-breach-of-a-major-climate-tipping-point
Yes, we’ve crossed our first climate tipping point. Ocean temperatures are now too high to sustain warm-water coral. Coral reefs, as I’m sure y’all know, are nurseries for many ocean fish species. After they dissappear, odds are there’ll be an associated extinction of fish species, and of predators which feed on reef-born fishes.
So Yay! One down and six more to go.
fascinating article in NYT recently about the massive renewable energy fields being build in tibet. china has built 16 GW of power from solar and wind farms, bigger than Manhattan. and the build continues. the high altitude of tibet plateau means greater sunlight concentration, and the cool air helps the systems run efficiently. and these renewable are powering large data centers that run more efficiently in the cool air, repurposing the heat generated to keep living quarters warm. they are building hydro plants for additional energy support, and pumping the water up at night with excess sun generated power during the day. natural battery. china is simply using basic science to build out far more efficient energy and technology solutions than we have in the usa, where both trump and abbott in texas are wasting our resources pushing for more coal and gas powered antiques.
hey bruce hall, your dear leader is falling behind in the technology of the energy future. and seems to be embracing the failure.
What the heck, here’s another tipping point looking tippy:
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2025/10/high-resolution-fingerprint-images-reveal-a-weakening-atlantic-ocean-circulation-amoc/
We won’t need to guess when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapses. Europe’s climate will change radically and irrevocably. Not in a nice way.
You mock Trump now for his policies on trade, climate change, and scientific research, but you will have to acknowledge his leadership and brilliance when the US emerges as the undisputed world leader in coal-fired, cybercurrency-enabled, tax evasion and money laundering.
Let other nations battle over the tired trophies of the past.
The Cayman Islands are sooooo screwed!
I’m no apologist for Biden’s disastrous Gaza policy, but this approbation for Trump is a bit over the top.
People seem to forget that the Biden ceasefires released 130 hostages and the Trump ceasefire released 20. Trump always glorifies himself as the best ever and the press dutifully hops to it, no matter how stupid it is.
Trump wasn’t initially invited to the Cairo meeting, because the other attendees didn’t see the point in having him. He doesn’t get things done, he just takes credit. His people insisted that he be there. The other attendees are going to feed, house, educate and police Gazans.
By the way, Israeli settlers have set up camp near the agricultural areas of Gaza, assuming they’ll be able to grab it like they have grabbed up somuch Palestinian land. And the worst of th worst in Bibi’s cabinet have threatened to bring his government down if he stops killing Palestinians. This ain’t over.
Lower economic activity can reduce tax income, affecting public services and debt management.온카패스