Nowcasting the Core Price Level

CPI and PCE, as of 11/11, from Cleveland Fed:

Figure 1: Core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (tan), both in logs, 2024M01=0. October CPI is nowcast, September and October PCE deflator is nowcast. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed (11/11), and author’s calculations.

Contra Kevin (Dow 36,000/Quadratic Covid) Hassett and Bessent, I do not see corresponding instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout, 2023) declining.

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