As of today’s close:
Figure 1: SP500 (blue, left log scale), and VIX (tan, right scale). Source: Dow Jones, CBOE via FRED.
Figure 2: Bitcoin BTC/USD (blue, left log scale), and VIX (tan, right scale). Source: Coinbase, CBOE via FRED.
The S&P500 is down from peak by 4%, Bitcoin down 26%.
Looks like we’re trading Fed policy in risk markets. Expectations for Fed rates have shifted modestly toward less cutting since the peak in the S&P, and as the VIX has risen.
Kashkari, Logan and Waller have all spoken about the near-term Fed rate outlook sincr Miranvalled for a 50 basis point cut. Kashkari and Logan don’t see much chance of any December rate cut. Waller does. Priced in odds are now 2-to-1 against a December cut. A week ago, odds were 2-to-1 in favor. A month ago, 100% in favor.
BLS to start publishing again
https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm
But no mention of the October or November reports – if data was even gathered.
Jamal Ahmad Hamza Khashoggi was a human being, a resident of the United States and a journalist. Each of those categories is protected under U.S. law. His humanity endows him with protection under the system of international law which was developed with the support of the United States and is binding on the U.S. through treaty obligation.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud ordered the assasination of Khashoggi because of Khashoggi’s activity as a journalist. That give Khashoggi a special place in the U.S. Constitutional order; his assassination is an affront to our way of life.
The U.S. President, a convinced felon, adjudicated rapist and murderer of innocent sailors, has welcomed Khashoggi’s murderer into the White House in grand fashion, and spoken with derision of Khashoggi. That’s who we are now.
Yet another felon-in-chief “peace” plan for Ukraine:
https://archive.is/tF8v1
No named sources, but it sounds right. Problem issues remain.
We don’t know much about what Putin and Trump agreed to in Aug in Anchorage, the rumors are it was agreeable to both, but the EU and Kiev disagreed. Nothing happened since until the meet that Axios portrays.
Is this thrust dependent on EU/Kiev?
If so it will likely be nil.
Some cryptocurrency background as it relates to recent price wobbles:
https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Markets/How-Soaring-Energy-Demand-Helped-Push-Bitcoin-Below-90000.html
By the way, Marketplace Radio reports that crypto-currency losses sunce the October peak amount to over $1 trillion. I assume that’s worldwide. Don’t know how large the wealth effect from crypto is. Certaintly, the correlation between crypto and stocks is turning out to be higher than holders would like.
Now, this is totally weird.
Trump yesterday on Jerome Powell: “I’d love to fire his ass. He should be fired. The only thing Scott [Bessent] is blowing it on is the Fed. The rates are too high, Scott. And if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m going to fire your ass.”
Bessent to Fox News today: “I think President Trump would make a great Fed Chair. He has an open mind. He understands monetary policy than a lot of people on the Fed.”
Okay, that’s not the weird part. Just the normal embarrassing sycophancy of someone sucking up to Trump to keep their job.
The weird part is that to this Fox interview Bessent is wearing a trench coat with “POLICE IRS-CI” emblazoned on the back in big white block letters. IRS-CI is the IRS criminal investigation unit, which actually carries guns.
This is the Secretary of the Treasury cosplaying as a Nazi Gestapo agent for a press interview? Is he jealous of the Puppy Killer getting too much law enforcement screen time? Can you picture the freak out if Janet Yellin had done this? What a weird time we live in.
Shocking news. Mayor Zohran Mamdani is going to require all New York City elementary students to learn Arabic numerals.
The Christian Nationalists have no problem with Arabic numerals if they have been blessed with the holy $ symbol.
how dare he force those students to learn such a system. blasphemous. we should all be using the roman numeral system, as blessed by the pope. otherwise nobody will know what superbowl is played this year.