As of today’s close:
Figure 1: SP500 (blue, left log scale), and VIX (tan, right scale). Source: Dow Jones, CBOE via FRED.
Figure 2: Bitcoin BTC/USD (blue, left log scale), and VIX (tan, right scale). Source: Coinbase, CBOE via FRED.
The S&P500 is down from peak by 4%, Bitcoin down 26%.
Looks like we’re trading Fed policy in risk markets. Expectations for Fed rates have shifted modestly toward less cutting since the peak in the S&P, and as the VIX has risen.