From Atlanta Fed today:
Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), Nov SPF (blue), GDPNow of 12/5 (light blue square), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
Nowcasted Quarter-on-Quarter annualized growth is down from 2.9% to 2.6%, below the SPF trajectory. For determining the amount of momentum, “core GDP” is more useful than GDP. GDP growth is nowcasted to slow to 3.5%, from 3.8% in Q2.
Figure 2: GDP (bold black), Nov SPF (blue), GDPNow of 12/5 (light blue square), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
Nearly on topic – Today should have brought BLS jobs data for November, but didn’t because BLA is still catching up from the shutdown. It could also be that our political bosses are in no hurry delivery the ugly facts.
Mennzie suggested combining the average monthly change in public-sector employment (+22k) with ADP’s private-sector estimate for November (-32k) which yields a 10k loss of jobs:
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/12/business-cycle-indicators-industrial-production-implied-employment-alternatives
It’s always useful to compare alternative estimates as a check on reliability. Turns out, Revelio Labs employment estimate for November shows a 9k loss of jobs – public and private:
https://www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor-statistics/employment/
Seems reasonable to assume there was a small loss of jobs in November.
The two estimates differ in some details. Revelio reports a loss of 19k across trade, transport and utilities vs ADP’s 1k rise. ADP reports the loss of 18k factory jobs, Revelio the loss of 7k. As for leisure and hospitality, ADP shows a 13k gain, Revelio an 11k loss. ADP has construction down 9k, Revelio up 3k.
By the way, Revelio reports an 8.5k loss of retail jobs in November. BLS shows an average 6k monthly gain in retail jobs in the year ending in September. That puts November 13.5k off the average pace. Could be worse, considering retail-sector hiring plans for the holiday season are for 59k to 159k fewer workers this year than last:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/02/business/holiday-hiring-seasonal-temporary-workers-retail
Sure would be nice to have BLS data about now.