Republican Sentiment: “The Sun’ll Come Out, Tomorrow”

From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers:

Figure 1: U.Michigan Survey of Consumers Consumer Expectations, Overall (bold black), Democratic/lean Democratic (blue), Republican/lean Republican (red). Source: U.Mich.

Notice that overall expectations match Democratic expectations, partly because Independents match Democrats more than Repubilcans.

The Republicans stand apart in terms of expectations, remaining quite optimistic. This is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: U.Michigan Survey of Consumers Republican Consumer Sentiment (red, left scale), SF Fed News Sentiment (teal). Source: U.MichSF Fed.

The pattern identified in April persists, with only slightly more erosion in expectations.

One thought on “Republican Sentiment: “The Sun’ll Come Out, Tomorrow”

  1. Macrooduck

    It struck me that the views of independents in the U. Michigan survey could be a reliable proxy for swing voter behavior, which seems kind of interestinf since swingers drive presidential electionresults. In the crudest form of casual empiricism, I looked at the indices for independents for all 3 Michigan survey questions on the way up to the 2020 and 2024 elections. My hypothesis looks shaky, perhaps because sentiment indicators soured in response to Covid and have remained depressed ever since.

    So I went back to 2016. Still don’t see a clear pattern of independent dissatisfaction leading to incumbent loss. Maybe something a little more sophisticated would work better. Lags? Compositional effects – respondents switch8ng affiliation and so masking swings in “independent” sentiment?

    There is probably published work on the subject. Anybody (anybody who isn’t a partisan drone) got thoughts?

    Reply

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