Responses to DoJ probe: An event study.
Source: TradingEconomics, accessed 1/13 1pm CT.
The ten year yield rose in response, while the dollar fell in value. Both of these are consistent with a view that damaging Fed independency would reduce central bank credibility (a la Barro-Gordon).
Source: Kalshi, accessed 1/13/2026 1pm CT.
Some of the recovery in yields is probably due to the market betting on TACO-Fed edition.
The Kalshi probability of a premature ouster of Chair Powell rose from 8% to 16.5% and now back to about 8%, as pushback from a few Republican senators and the bond market induced a slight White House pullback. Odds on whether Powell will still be a governor as of August 2026 fell from 84% to 60%.
Addendum, 2pm CT:
The gold market appears less convinced that the Administration will retreat:
Source: TradingEconomics, accessed 1/13/2026, 2pm CT.
‘Antoni says you are using fake data. Only he has the actual data!!
How come your DOJ cannot read what is on the Fed’s website. It is all there. They are very incompetent these days
Mind you Pirro cannot even indict a ham sandwich thee times! Get Halligan
Q: The premier of Greenland said today, ‘We prefer to stay with Denmark.’
TRUMP: Who said that?
Q: The premier of Greenland
TRUMP: Well, that’s their problem. I disagree with him. I don’t know who he is. Don’t know anything about him. But that’s gonna be a big problem for him.
Isn’t that effectively a declaration of war on a NATO country?
Trump’s plan is to oust Powell, appoint himself Fed Chair and then collect his FIFA Prize in Economics.