“The results show that climate change is already reducing annual U.S. income by 0.32% [95% CI: −0.17 to 0.82%] by altering counties’ current, local temperatures, with losses concentrated in the Great Plains and Midwest. Accounting for effects on past temperatures and on temperatures in other counties increases income losses to 12% [2.0 to 22%] and makes them more widely distributed, with suggestive evidence that trade networks propagate effects around the United States.”
An income loss of 12% from climate change. In the U.S. Good thing it’s a hoax.
Timingsl of the latest wrakening suggests Greenland. Greenland suggests NATO and the EU – military and economic cooperation, the very things the felon-in-chief wants to erode.
Ostensibly not for political reasons, but rather because of weak U.S. fiscal policy. The timing, though, is giving weight to the “dump Treasuroes” story.
Just a reminder: The first to sell survives an asset bust. If you think a bust is likely, sell. So sellingstarts, the chatter is vindicated, and a rout commences. Liquidity dries up, so the decline in prices is exaggerated for a time. Plumbing issues can cause markets to seize up. Because this is the Treasury market, the risk of plumbing becoming a problem is high.
The Fed and Treasury would intervene. At a guess, the Fed would “buy” Treasuries, maybe without quotation marks, maybe through swaps.
Bessent might be relevant, or not. Best if he isn’t. If he turns to staff for direction, that’s a plus. Remember, he’s a hedge fund guy, not a banker nor a central banker – a dilettante when it comes to curing financial turmoil. If the felon-in-chief meddles, he’ll make things worse. Coordinated action with other big countries can happen, but only to the extent they will benefit. Taking a bullet for the U.S. isn’t high on anyone’s agenda these days.
In the funds futures market, modal bets about the most likely funds target have not changed, but there is an inward shift in pricing. Curve steepening under these circumstances will probably be seen as reflecting recession risk. Bad for “affordability” in the housing market.
Trump is certainly doing everything he can to wipe out American power, whether it is economic, military, or cultural. Oh, well. We knew he destroys everything he touches when we elected him. Now he’s just doing what he does.
It’s a Treasury market volatility tracker. In normal times, it mostly track the outlook for fed funds, because a change in the outlook for the funds rate causes volatility in Treasury prices. However, any factor in Treasury pricing that looks shakey, like a sudden rise in inflation expectations, can push the MOVE higher. The MOVE rose today without a big change in fed funds futures, and while TIPS yields rose less than Treasury yields. So term premium – the price of the risk associated with holding debt to maturity – accounts for most of the rise in Treasury yields and most likely for the rise in the MOVE index. Not a big move in the MOVE, but not what you want to see.
Off topic – climate change and economic performamce:
“Climate change has already made the United States poorer”
Derek Lemoine (U of Arizona, NBER)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2504376122
From the abstract:
“The results show that climate change is already reducing annual U.S. income by 0.32% [95% CI: −0.17 to 0.82%] by altering counties’ current, local temperatures, with losses concentrated in the Great Plains and Midwest. Accounting for effects on past temperatures and on temperatures in other counties increases income losses to 12% [2.0 to 22%] and makes them more widely distributed, with suggestive evidence that trade networks propagate effects around the United States.”
An income loss of 12% from climate change. In the U.S. Good thing it’s a hoax.
Timingsl of the latest wrakening suggests Greenland. Greenland suggests NATO and the EU – military and economic cooperation, the very things the felon-in-chief wants to erode.
Who’d have guessed?
Very much On Topic – Greenlandization of Canada:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trumps-latest-western-hemisphere-fixation-canada-rcna254552
The felon-in-chief has decided that White Walkers are a threat to Westeros.
Here’s Fortune giving space to fairly widespread “dump Treasuroes” chatter in the fixed income market:
https://fortune.com/2026/01/18/europe-retaliation-8-trillion-sell-america-us-debt-bonds-stocks-trade-war-greenland-trump/
A Danish pension fund has already announced it will sell its Treasury holdings:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/danish-pension-fund-to-divest-its-us-treasuries/ar-AA1UAOuN
Ostensibly not for political reasons, but rather because of weak U.S. fiscal policy. The timing, though, is giving weight to the “dump Treasuroes” story.
Just a reminder: The first to sell survives an asset bust. If you think a bust is likely, sell. So sellingstarts, the chatter is vindicated, and a rout commences. Liquidity dries up, so the decline in prices is exaggerated for a time. Plumbing issues can cause markets to seize up. Because this is the Treasury market, the risk of plumbing becoming a problem is high.
The Fed and Treasury would intervene. At a guess, the Fed would “buy” Treasuries, maybe without quotation marks, maybe through swaps.
Bessent might be relevant, or not. Best if he isn’t. If he turns to staff for direction, that’s a plus. Remember, he’s a hedge fund guy, not a banker nor a central banker – a dilettante when it comes to curing financial turmoil. If the felon-in-chief meddles, he’ll make things worse. Coordinated action with other big countries can happen, but only to the extent they will benefit. Taking a bullet for the U.S. isn’t high on anyone’s agenda these days.
In the funds futures market, modal bets about the most likely funds target have not changed, but there is an inward shift in pricing. Curve steepening under these circumstances will probably be seen as reflecting recession risk. Bad for “affordability” in the housing market.
TACO time?
Trump is certainly doing everything he can to wipe out American power, whether it is economic, military, or cultural. Oh, well. We knew he destroys everything he touches when we elected him. Now he’s just doing what he does.
Might want to keep an eye on the MOVE index:
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/35584/us-treasury-move-index
It’s a Treasury market volatility tracker. In normal times, it mostly track the outlook for fed funds, because a change in the outlook for the funds rate causes volatility in Treasury prices. However, any factor in Treasury pricing that looks shakey, like a sudden rise in inflation expectations, can push the MOVE higher. The MOVE rose today without a big change in fed funds futures, and while TIPS yields rose less than Treasury yields. So term premium – the price of the risk associated with holding debt to maturity – accounts for most of the rise in Treasury yields and most likely for the rise in the MOVE index. Not a big move in the MOVE, but not what you want to see.