Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for February, y/y inflation will be 3%, instantaneous at 3.2%, 3.6% instantaneous using Goldman Sachs estimate based on today’s PPI release.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12,a=4) for core PCE deflator, using Cleveland Fed nowcast (dark blue), using Goldman Sachs estimate of 2/27 (lsky blue)all in decimal form %.. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023).Source: BEA, Cleveland Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
Instantaneous above y/y indicates the most recent months’ m/m inflation is higher than the distant past.
Unless unemployment rises quickly, it’s difficult to see an imminent rate decrease.
The target has always been 3.5%—just move that dashed red line up a bit like a good patriot. It would be a shame for Wisconsin to lose federal funding for its university system now wouldn’t it?
What with the Straits of Hormuz suddenly looking iffy, headline inflation forecasts are looking iffy, too.
Check in Sunday night to see whether oil futures are repricing.
So glad we’re putting America first.
Very much a side issue, what with tha war with Iran and all, but Russia could turn out to benefit from the war.
Turns out, India’s shift away from Russian oil was pretty big, showing up as a tripling of tanker rates btween the Middle East and India:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Tanker-Rates-Surge-to-Six-Year-High.html
If Middle East oil becomes scarce and expensive, India may have little choice but to shift back to Russian oil.
Two factors seem to account for the timing if the attack, aside from having enough munitions to make a big ban. Iran was maki g major consessions in arms tLks, which could have ended our excuse for attacking, and Cuba needs to see that we attack everybody these days.
I wonder what a sustained spike in oil prices will have on Core PCE? We have not yet seen the impact that continued policy uncertainty and 15% tariffs will have on PCE. We should start to get a reading on that in April, May, and June. Finally if you are company seeking a tariff refund – you should prepare yourself for a lengthy court battle with the Trump administration. What is that Republicans have against American business that they want to impose random and onerous regulations on them?
Assassinating Sovereigns and American Foreign Policy
“Assassinating sovereign leaders has been considered so potentially corrosive of international society that its prohibition has been a foundational pillar of world order since the Treaty of Westphalia (1648). The New York Convention (1973) criminalises the assassination or any harm of “internationally protected persons”. Practical and moral reasons have buttressed the prohibition against assassination around notions of stability and maintenance of international order. Data from Archigos indicates that the prohibition on targeting sovereign leaders has been so robust that only ten leaders have been assassinated by a foreign state between 1875 and 2004…”
https://firearmslaw.duke.edu/2020/08/assassinating-sovereigns-and-american-foreign-policy
“Trump says Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead”
‘President Donald Trump on Saturday said that U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders.
“The people that make all the decisions, most of them are gone,” Trump told NBC News in a phone call, adding that “a large amount of leadership” in Iran was also killed, although he declined to go into more detail.’
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/trump-says-iran-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-dead/3901447/
More war crimes. More disregard for law, tradition, or anything but power.
Assassinating Sovereigns and American Foreign Policy
“Assassinating sovereign leaders has been considered so potentially corrosive of international society that its prohibition has been a foundational pillar of world order since the Treaty of Westphalia (1648). The New York Convention (1973) criminalises the assassination or any harm of “internationally protected persons”. Practical and moral reasons have buttressed the prohibition against assassination around notions of stability and maintenance of international order. Data from Archigos indicates that the prohibition on targeting sovereign leaders has been so robust that only ten leaders have been assassinated by a foreign state between 1875 and 2004…”
https://firearmslaw.duke.edu/2020/08/assassinating-sovereigns-and-american-foreign-policy
“Trump says Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead”
‘President Donald Trump on Saturday said that U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders.
“The people that make all the decisions, most of them are gone,” Trump told NBC News in a phone call, adding that “a large amount of leadership” in Iran was also killed, although he declined to go into more detail.’
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/trump-says-iran-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-dead/3901447/
More war crimes. More disregard for law, tradition, or anything but power.