From NYT today “Former Farming Leaders Warn U.S. Agriculture Could Face ‘Widespread Collapse'”:
While there are many reasons for increasing farm bankruptcies and decreasing profits, “it is clear that the current administration’s actions, along with congressional inaction, have increased costs for farm inputs, disrupted overseas and domestic markets, denied agriculture its reliable labor pool, and defunded critical ag research and staffing,” the letter warned.
Here are some indicators describing the dire straits the ag sector is in, deteriorating relative to the situation I outlined back in October (EconoFact). First, farmer sentiment collapses, from 136 in December to 116 in January.
Source: Purdue & CME.
From the report:
Among the five indices that make up the AEB Index, the largest decline was in the question asking participants whether U.S. agriculture would have good times or bad times in the next five years. The index for this question fell from 122 to 88, marking its lowest point since September 2024. Respondents also expressed greater concerns about agricultural exports compared to last month.
Both current conditions and expectations declined:
Source: Purdue & CME.
From the report:
One-half of the producers surveyed reported that their farm operations were worse off than a year ago. Moreover, looking ahead 12 months, 30% expected worse financial performance, compared to 20% who expected better financial performance.
Given this outlook, it’s not surprising that the outlook for capital investment is poor. Only 4% of respondents expected to increase farm machinery spending over the next 12 months.
The USDA’s forecast for 2026 comes out in a couple days (see here for September release); here’s one guess for (nominal) net farm income in 2026:
Source: B.Knorr, FarmProgress.
The NYT article notes that retaliation has diminished agricultural exports. Here’s a graphical depiction:
Figure 1: Exports of food, feed and beverages, mn.Ch.2017$ per month, s.a. (blue, log scale). Source: BEA.
Who coulda knew? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
“it is clear that the current administration’s actions, along with congressional inaction, have increased costs for farm inputs, disrupted overseas and domestic markets, denied agriculture its reliable labor pool, and defunded critical ag research and staffing,”
Hold hand to your hats – boys – you ain’t really been hit by extreme weather events from climate change.
Also – notice how they never say Republican congress –
China and other countries are moving away from trump U.S. “The share of Chinese exports going to the US has declined to 10%, down from 20% in 2018, https://www.apolloacademy.com/only-10-of-chinese-exports-go-to-the-us/
What does economics tell us? – when you do less trade with others – you become poorer.
china very clearly moved on to other customers during the last trump debacle. our trade efforts were reduced, china just found more customers. i guess that is what trump calls winning. its also why everything is more expensive today.
on the renewable energy front, i read a recent article that shows how serious china is in the renewable sector. the usa is falling far behind china as the manufacturer of renewables. trump is taking us back in time with an emphasis on coal power plants, which china is light years ahead of us in renewable clean energy. they are building vast wind and solar farms in western china that dwarf the usa. energy is the commodity of the future, and china is investing in that commodity, while a trump led usa is falling further and further behind. the future is electric, no matter what trump or steven kopits says otherwise.