GDPNow shows fast growth…

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO projection (tan), WSJ mean (green), GDPNow of 2/11 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q3 updated release, WSJ, CBO Economic and Budget Outlook, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.

However, of the 3.7% q/q AR nowcasted growth, 0.8 percentage points is accounted for by inventory accumulation. This contrasts with the 0.12 percentage points decumulation in Q3 (updated release).

This observation calls for focusing on final sales. However, exports and imports have behaved erratically, so I focus on final sales to private domestic purchasers, aka “Core GDP”.

Figure 2: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), CBO projection (tan), GDPNow of 2/11 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q3 updated release, CBO Economic and Budget Outlook, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.

Here the forecast of deceleration is more clear. Actual in 2025Q3 was 3%, nowcasted 2.3% q/q AR in Q4.