Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026
Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration.
It was only 23% on February 27th, before the first strikes.
27.7% from Kalshi, using 2 consecutive quarter negative growth criterion.
17 thoughts on “Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026”
Macroduck
Here’s Polymarket’s definition for an NBER declaration:
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
That definition lowers the odds of a “yes” payoff considerably, since the NBER tends to call recessions with quite a lag.
Even so, odds are now priced at 38%, apparently driven higher when, as you note, Brent cracked $100.
If you wonder where the Epstein video tapes are – they are in Moscow. There no better top-line Kompromat than a videotape of someone committing statutory rape. When you have such material you own that person.
joseph
You’ve got Bloodthirsty Baffler still trying to defend the US military murdering 165 young girls. Well we now have literal images of the Tomahawks used in the attack. These missiles have an accuracy of a few feet. They didn’t hit that school by accident. They intentionally targeted that school — dead center twice. There was no reason to hit that school other than they intended to. You can see a map of the location. This school has been operating there for over a decade. There is a visible fence separating the school from the military facility and a new entrance for the school away from the military facility. There are satellite photos of dozens of children playing in the school yard. You can see with your own eyes in the link below.
How did this happen? Bloodthirsty carelessness. We now find out that the Pentagon is using an AI for targeting run by one of Musk’s white nationalist DOGE boys — a 24-year-old psychopathic kid. Likely the AI got confused by decades old data that no human bothered to take the few minutes to verify. Allowing hallucinating AI robots to choose who lives or dies is sci-fi dystopia come to reality. This is depraved indifference to human life and Baffling is okay with that.
Let’s find out if Baffling is an honest person or a bloodthirsty deviant. Just answer two easy questions.
1. Did the US military intentionally target the school building — that it was no accident?
2. Did the US military make a careless mistake identifying a decade old school as a military target?
1. no, it was an accident.
2. yes, it was an accident.
unlike joseph, i do not believe the usa operates with intention to kill elementary school children. what a wicked mind you have joseph. it is disparaging to every solder who ever served in the military. you are an old hippie stuck in the woodstock era.
now joseph, can you explain to me why an elementary school was located adjacent (and perhaps even internal) to a military facility? was that an accident, or intentional. why are you defending the bloodthirsty regime in iran, joseph.
unlike joseph, i know many iranian people. in fact, i was sitting in my office today discussing the war with a very good friend of mine from iran. while he does not like war, he is very happy that the ayatollah is dead and the regime is taking a beating. he is unsure of the future. he understands that the longer the war continues, the worse the average person in iran will fare. he hopes for change. he has family back in iran, who are physicians in tehran. he understands that many thousands were killed a few months ago, by the murderers that joseph wants to protect today. his family saw it in the hospital. i do not think he and joseph would get along, at all. but my friend is a good man. how many people from iran have you discussed the war with, joseph? my bet is, zero.
joseph’s address: ivory tower.
Ithaqua
One reason elementary schools are often located adjacent to, or very close to, military facilities is that many military personnel have young kids who need to attend elementary school, and it’s really convenient to have a school close by. I’m guessing that when these facilities were built, Iran had no idea that the U.S. or anyone else would launch strikes at the base. This happens in the U.S., too, and probably everywhere else in the world where people don’t expect a bunch of missiles to fall out of the sky onto their base at any time in the plausibly near future. In fact, there are currently 161 public schools operating ON military bases in the U.S., according to https://www.militaryonesource.mil/education-employment/for-children-youth/what-schools-are-available-to-children-on-military-installations/.
Baffling
just because people do it makes it ok? really, lets not call it a poor decision because everybody else is doing it? convenience over rides safety? why would you place a school in a military target? I feel terrible for what happened at that school. but please, don’t put school children in a military target.
in texas thirty years ago, a children’s camp was placed in a known flash flood zone and some children were killed. fast forward thirty years. same river and flash flood zone. children’s camp still in that flash flood zone. 35 more children died. and they want to reopen the same camp for children again this year. in the same flood zone. why are children placed in danger by responsible adults?
Ithaqua
“Convenience overrides safety?” – hmmm, do you drive a car? People trade off safety for convenience *all the time*. In 2025 alone, nearly 11,000 children were killed in auto accidents in the U.S. I’m guessing that in Iran over the last *30 years*, fewer than 200 children were killed due to a) being in a school in or next to a military base and b) being bombed – a rate of less than 10 children/year. One of those numbers is not like the other. As for “please, don’t put school children in a military target” – where else are the children of military personnel supposed to live? Should we make a new rule prohibiting military personnel from living with their families? Clear implication: no single parents in our armed forces! Maybe, but don’t pretend that’s got any chance of actually passing any first-world legislature.
Ivan
During the Biden administration there was serious concern about Ukraine letting AI guide their drones, because they might end up hitting civilians. We apparently not only overcame that, but let it be overseen by a clueless DOGE boy instead of a military professional.
joseph
You aim two precision Tomahawk missiles at a building and hit it dead center — there’s no question that is intentional. Those missiles don’t miss. That is no accident.
That they failed to determine whether the building they were aiming at was a legitimate military target — that is depraved indifference, a war crime, no question about it. That is no accident.
If it turns out that the Pentagon was using AI to pick its targets and failed to verify the hallucinatory AI results, it is an even bigger crime. The fact that a school was in that building was no secret. It had been there more than 10 years. They just didn’t bother to check, bloodthirsty ghouls that they are.
This wasn’t any “chaos in the fog of war” thing. This was a long, deliberate planned attack. They had all the time in the world to verify their targets. They just didn’t care. And apparently you don’t either.
Baffling
Joseph, I don’t think any professional soldier deliberately and knowingly targeted that school. if they did, I would call it a war crime and prosecute. but right now the evidence does not support that accusation. that is you making garbage up. most of your argument is simply conjecture and not fact based.
Joseph, you are reliving your Woodstock years while living in your ivory tower.
and I noticed you neglected to answer my question on how many people from Iran you have discussed the war with. well informed, Joseph. you are an ayatollah sympathizer who apparently has no problem with the tens of thousands of Iranians slaughtered a few weeks ago. simply for expressing their voice and desire for freedom. tens of thousands died, Joseph. but you want to protect that regime.
Ithaqua
In law, there are three levels of wrongful actions or inactions – malfeasance, misfeasance, and nonfeasance. I don’t believe that Joseph believes the school was knowingly targeted (malfeasance). Misfeasance – in this case, failure to take reasonable precautions – is a thing that apparently you don’t understand, since you seem to assume that if it wasn’t done on purpose, it was reasonable. Legally, you don’t get off the hook if you leave a loaded gun lying around the house and your three-year-old shoots himself with it; sure, it’s not first-degree murder, but it’s not “making garbage up” to claim the person should get in a hell of a lot of legal trouble for it.
Everybody in the military is well aware of the school-base issue, as they were all living on bases for a good part of their service. Saying that someone should have thought of it and checked, or that the base + school should have been attacked during non-school hours (e.g., night), is hardly being an “ayatollah sympathizer” or “want[ing] to protect that regime”. Blaming the victim in this case is… well, words fail me, at least if I’m going to be polite.
You seem so consumed with hatred for the Iranian government that you’ve lost the ability to distinguish between “bad Iranians”, e.g., supporters of a repressive regime, and “not bad Iranians”, e.g., elementary school students whose parents happen to live on or near a military base. “Kill them all, let God sort them out” will kill the good Iranians, too, you know.
baffling
Ithaqua, you argue “I don’t believe that Joseph believes the school was knowingly targeted (malfeasance). “. I think you have failed to read his statements.
“You aim two precision Tomahawk missiles at a building and hit it dead center — there’s no question that is intentional. Those missiles don’t miss. That is no accident.
That they failed to determine whether the building they were aiming at was a legitimate military target — that is depraved indifference, a war crime, no question about it. That is no accident.”
that is exactly what Joseph has been arguing. I don’t believe they intentionally targeted an elementary school. if they did, it is a war crime. but that is not the first thing I assume. Joseph did exactly that.
look, unlike Joseph’s accusations, I am not a fan of war. I think it is cruel and inhumane. but it is unrealistic to think that you can conduct a war with no innocent victims. I don’t think you can run thousands of sorties and no collateral damage. every military professional knows that as well. but I also know that if you encourage the Iranians to overthrow their government, but do nothing to support them, then instead of 135 school children you will leave another TENS OF THOUSANDS of innocent civilians DEAD, slaughtered. it just happened, it is not a hypothetical. you need to reconsider your “Kill them all, let God sort them out” will kill the good Iranians, too, you know.” statement in light of the big picture.
do you want to try to stop such murders, or not?
joseph
“Collateral damage!
Bloody Baffling mocks the lessons of the 60s above calling them the Woodstock era, and then he has the audacity to literally pull out an Orwellian phrase invented during the Vietnam War used to dehumanize the indiscriminate destruction of human lives — dropping bombs from 30,000 feet on who knows what, spraying the jungle with flaming napalm not knowing who was under the canopy. Lessons are never learned. Collateral damage? Baffling doesn’t even know what he doesn’t know.
Baffling: “Can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, am I right?”
baffling
Joseph, tens of thousands of innocent Iranians were recently slaughtered by the regime in Iran. I think that is inhumane. not a peep from you on that. but I will give you a chance. give me a credible solution that will make sure that never happens again. it has happened before as well, so this was a repeat offense. but impose your same restrictions. not a soul can get hurt in your solution. give me a credible solution to this problem, not a fantasy solution. or are you ok with the deaths of tens of thousands of Iranians, as long as the us military is not involved? I am willing to listen. I value those lives.
joseph
Attorney General Pam Bondi: “We shouldn’t be talking about the Epstein files. We should be talking about how the DOW is over 50,000.”
Are we allowed to talk about the Epstein files now?
Baffling
I dont see how you dont get a recession in 2026. We are in stagflation now. Inflation is simmering and unemployment is rising. AI will keep a lid on employment and wage increases. Rates cannot drop without a bad case of inflation. Oil prices remain elevated. Its hard for me to find a case where recession is not in the cards. The war with iran (with multiple war instances we now must be specific) seems to be the final nail in the coffin. We chose this recession with our decision making.
Here’s Polymarket’s definition for an NBER declaration:
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
That definition lowers the odds of a “yes” payoff considerably, since the NBER tends to call recessions with quite a lag.
Even so, odds are now priced at 38%, apparently driven higher when, as you note, Brent cracked $100.
For those who forgot about Putin using America as a proxy nation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/opinion/ukraine-russia-negotiations.html
If you wonder where the Epstein video tapes are – they are in Moscow. There no better top-line Kompromat than a videotape of someone committing statutory rape. When you have such material you own that person.
You’ve got Bloodthirsty Baffler still trying to defend the US military murdering 165 young girls. Well we now have literal images of the Tomahawks used in the attack. These missiles have an accuracy of a few feet. They didn’t hit that school by accident. They intentionally targeted that school — dead center twice. There was no reason to hit that school other than they intended to. You can see a map of the location. This school has been operating there for over a decade. There is a visible fence separating the school from the military facility and a new entrance for the school away from the military facility. There are satellite photos of dozens of children playing in the school yard. You can see with your own eyes in the link below.
How did this happen? Bloodthirsty carelessness. We now find out that the Pentagon is using an AI for targeting run by one of Musk’s white nationalist DOGE boys — a 24-year-old psychopathic kid. Likely the AI got confused by decades old data that no human bothered to take the few minutes to verify. Allowing hallucinating AI robots to choose who lives or dies is sci-fi dystopia come to reality. This is depraved indifference to human life and Baffling is okay with that.
Let’s find out if Baffling is an honest person or a bloodthirsty deviant. Just answer two easy questions.
1. Did the US military intentionally target the school building — that it was no accident?
2. Did the US military make a careless mistake identifying a decade old school as a military target?
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/09/middleeast/iran-minab-school-airstrike-new-footage-intl
1. no, it was an accident.
2. yes, it was an accident.
unlike joseph, i do not believe the usa operates with intention to kill elementary school children. what a wicked mind you have joseph. it is disparaging to every solder who ever served in the military. you are an old hippie stuck in the woodstock era.
now joseph, can you explain to me why an elementary school was located adjacent (and perhaps even internal) to a military facility? was that an accident, or intentional. why are you defending the bloodthirsty regime in iran, joseph.
unlike joseph, i know many iranian people. in fact, i was sitting in my office today discussing the war with a very good friend of mine from iran. while he does not like war, he is very happy that the ayatollah is dead and the regime is taking a beating. he is unsure of the future. he understands that the longer the war continues, the worse the average person in iran will fare. he hopes for change. he has family back in iran, who are physicians in tehran. he understands that many thousands were killed a few months ago, by the murderers that joseph wants to protect today. his family saw it in the hospital. i do not think he and joseph would get along, at all. but my friend is a good man. how many people from iran have you discussed the war with, joseph? my bet is, zero.
joseph’s address: ivory tower.
One reason elementary schools are often located adjacent to, or very close to, military facilities is that many military personnel have young kids who need to attend elementary school, and it’s really convenient to have a school close by. I’m guessing that when these facilities were built, Iran had no idea that the U.S. or anyone else would launch strikes at the base. This happens in the U.S., too, and probably everywhere else in the world where people don’t expect a bunch of missiles to fall out of the sky onto their base at any time in the plausibly near future. In fact, there are currently 161 public schools operating ON military bases in the U.S., according to https://www.militaryonesource.mil/education-employment/for-children-youth/what-schools-are-available-to-children-on-military-installations/.
just because people do it makes it ok? really, lets not call it a poor decision because everybody else is doing it? convenience over rides safety? why would you place a school in a military target? I feel terrible for what happened at that school. but please, don’t put school children in a military target.
in texas thirty years ago, a children’s camp was placed in a known flash flood zone and some children were killed. fast forward thirty years. same river and flash flood zone. children’s camp still in that flash flood zone. 35 more children died. and they want to reopen the same camp for children again this year. in the same flood zone. why are children placed in danger by responsible adults?
“Convenience overrides safety?” – hmmm, do you drive a car? People trade off safety for convenience *all the time*. In 2025 alone, nearly 11,000 children were killed in auto accidents in the U.S. I’m guessing that in Iran over the last *30 years*, fewer than 200 children were killed due to a) being in a school in or next to a military base and b) being bombed – a rate of less than 10 children/year. One of those numbers is not like the other. As for “please, don’t put school children in a military target” – where else are the children of military personnel supposed to live? Should we make a new rule prohibiting military personnel from living with their families? Clear implication: no single parents in our armed forces! Maybe, but don’t pretend that’s got any chance of actually passing any first-world legislature.
During the Biden administration there was serious concern about Ukraine letting AI guide their drones, because they might end up hitting civilians. We apparently not only overcame that, but let it be overseen by a clueless DOGE boy instead of a military professional.
You aim two precision Tomahawk missiles at a building and hit it dead center — there’s no question that is intentional. Those missiles don’t miss. That is no accident.
That they failed to determine whether the building they were aiming at was a legitimate military target — that is depraved indifference, a war crime, no question about it. That is no accident.
If it turns out that the Pentagon was using AI to pick its targets and failed to verify the hallucinatory AI results, it is an even bigger crime. The fact that a school was in that building was no secret. It had been there more than 10 years. They just didn’t bother to check, bloodthirsty ghouls that they are.
This wasn’t any “chaos in the fog of war” thing. This was a long, deliberate planned attack. They had all the time in the world to verify their targets. They just didn’t care. And apparently you don’t either.
Joseph, I don’t think any professional soldier deliberately and knowingly targeted that school. if they did, I would call it a war crime and prosecute. but right now the evidence does not support that accusation. that is you making garbage up. most of your argument is simply conjecture and not fact based.
Joseph, you are reliving your Woodstock years while living in your ivory tower.
and I noticed you neglected to answer my question on how many people from Iran you have discussed the war with. well informed, Joseph. you are an ayatollah sympathizer who apparently has no problem with the tens of thousands of Iranians slaughtered a few weeks ago. simply for expressing their voice and desire for freedom. tens of thousands died, Joseph. but you want to protect that regime.
In law, there are three levels of wrongful actions or inactions – malfeasance, misfeasance, and nonfeasance. I don’t believe that Joseph believes the school was knowingly targeted (malfeasance). Misfeasance – in this case, failure to take reasonable precautions – is a thing that apparently you don’t understand, since you seem to assume that if it wasn’t done on purpose, it was reasonable. Legally, you don’t get off the hook if you leave a loaded gun lying around the house and your three-year-old shoots himself with it; sure, it’s not first-degree murder, but it’s not “making garbage up” to claim the person should get in a hell of a lot of legal trouble for it.
Everybody in the military is well aware of the school-base issue, as they were all living on bases for a good part of their service. Saying that someone should have thought of it and checked, or that the base + school should have been attacked during non-school hours (e.g., night), is hardly being an “ayatollah sympathizer” or “want[ing] to protect that regime”. Blaming the victim in this case is… well, words fail me, at least if I’m going to be polite.
You seem so consumed with hatred for the Iranian government that you’ve lost the ability to distinguish between “bad Iranians”, e.g., supporters of a repressive regime, and “not bad Iranians”, e.g., elementary school students whose parents happen to live on or near a military base. “Kill them all, let God sort them out” will kill the good Iranians, too, you know.
Ithaqua, you argue “I don’t believe that Joseph believes the school was knowingly targeted (malfeasance). “. I think you have failed to read his statements.
“You aim two precision Tomahawk missiles at a building and hit it dead center — there’s no question that is intentional. Those missiles don’t miss. That is no accident.
That they failed to determine whether the building they were aiming at was a legitimate military target — that is depraved indifference, a war crime, no question about it. That is no accident.”
that is exactly what Joseph has been arguing. I don’t believe they intentionally targeted an elementary school. if they did, it is a war crime. but that is not the first thing I assume. Joseph did exactly that.
look, unlike Joseph’s accusations, I am not a fan of war. I think it is cruel and inhumane. but it is unrealistic to think that you can conduct a war with no innocent victims. I don’t think you can run thousands of sorties and no collateral damage. every military professional knows that as well. but I also know that if you encourage the Iranians to overthrow their government, but do nothing to support them, then instead of 135 school children you will leave another TENS OF THOUSANDS of innocent civilians DEAD, slaughtered. it just happened, it is not a hypothetical. you need to reconsider your “Kill them all, let God sort them out” will kill the good Iranians, too, you know.” statement in light of the big picture.
do you want to try to stop such murders, or not?
“Collateral damage!
Bloody Baffling mocks the lessons of the 60s above calling them the Woodstock era, and then he has the audacity to literally pull out an Orwellian phrase invented during the Vietnam War used to dehumanize the indiscriminate destruction of human lives — dropping bombs from 30,000 feet on who knows what, spraying the jungle with flaming napalm not knowing who was under the canopy. Lessons are never learned. Collateral damage? Baffling doesn’t even know what he doesn’t know.
Baffling: “Can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, am I right?”
Joseph, tens of thousands of innocent Iranians were recently slaughtered by the regime in Iran. I think that is inhumane. not a peep from you on that. but I will give you a chance. give me a credible solution that will make sure that never happens again. it has happened before as well, so this was a repeat offense. but impose your same restrictions. not a soul can get hurt in your solution. give me a credible solution to this problem, not a fantasy solution. or are you ok with the deaths of tens of thousands of Iranians, as long as the us military is not involved? I am willing to listen. I value those lives.
Attorney General Pam Bondi: “We shouldn’t be talking about the Epstein files. We should be talking about how the DOW is over 50,000.”
Are we allowed to talk about the Epstein files now?
I dont see how you dont get a recession in 2026. We are in stagflation now. Inflation is simmering and unemployment is rising. AI will keep a lid on employment and wage increases. Rates cannot drop without a bad case of inflation. Oil prices remain elevated. Its hard for me to find a case where recession is not in the cards. The war with iran (with multiple war instances we now must be specific) seems to be the final nail in the coffin. We chose this recession with our decision making.