Polymarket (8pm CT 3/6) reads 97% probability of closure by 3/31, as defined by the contract as an 80% reduction in 7 day moving average in traffic.
Source: Polymarket, accessed 3/6/2026 8pm CT.
Source: Bloomberg, 3/6/2026.
If the closure is sustained, then Bloomberg Economics predicts $108/bbl oil.
It is hard to know, because the trump administration is not transparent, but Israel and the U.S. may be bombing water infrastructure – creating a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions – https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-04/iran-war-the-most-precious-commodity-is-water-not-oil