From AIER today:

AIER’s proprietary Everyday Price Index (EPI) vaulted 2.5 percent to 307.4 in March 2026, its second-largest monthly increase back to January 2020 (the first was an increase of 2.9 percent in March 2022). Of the 24 price categories that compose the EPI, fourteen rose, two were unchanged, and eight declined. Unsurprisingly, the largest jumps in price occurred in motor fuel, housing fuels and utilities, and food away from home. Prescription drugs, internet services, and food at home declined the most. (The juxtaposition of price changes in the food away from home versus food at home categories likely reflects the gasoline pass-through of food delivery service costs.)

Here’s a comparison of AIER’s EPI against other price indices:

Figure 1: CPI all urban (bold black), implied CPI using U.Michigan expected inflation (gray square), CPI ex-shelter (green), AIER Everyday Price Index (red), all in logs 2025M01=0. April CPI is Cleveland Fed nowcast. Source: BLS via FRED, AIER, Cleveland Fed, U.Michigan, and author’s calculations.

Over the 2022M01-2026M03 period (forecasts from 2021M01 to 2025M03), inflation has exceeded Michigan expectations about 37 bps, not statistically significantly different from zero. If the U.Michigan mean forecast is correct, then the price level will by 8% higher (in log terms, or 8.7%) in 2027M03 than when Trump took office the second time.