GDP Projections: One of These Is Not Like the Others

Adding in IMF WEO projections, as well as nowcasts/tracking:

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April Admin. (red square), April IMF World Economic Outlook (blue square), March Survey of Professional Forecasters (brown), GDPNow (4/9) (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (4/13) (purple *), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.

The Administration forecast was finalized based on early November data, and so does not include the impact of the war. However, as noted in this post, the idiosyncrasy of the Administration forecast is not entirely — or even mostly — due to date of the forecast. Contemporary forecasts showed the Administration forecast far outpacing comparators.

 

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