Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Hormuz Re-opening Odds and Brent June Futures
From data 10 min ago:
Figure 1: Brent, NYMEX June Futures, $/bbl (black, left log scale), probability of Hormuz remains closed as of July 1 (red, right scale). 4/27 observation at 9:30am CT. Source: barchart.com, kalshi.com, author’s calculations.
2 thoughts on “Hormuz Re-opening Odds and Brent June Futures”
Macroduck
The Brent/WTI spread is back to around $11, from as narrow as $5 at mid-April – near the historic average. December 2029 WTI futures are still priced about $5.50 above the pre-war price. Not a happy picture.
baffling
not that i enjoy rubbing it in, but the new EV is more pleasant to drive every day. i must say, the EV ride is better than any other vehicle i have ridden in, including the luxury brands. smooth acceleration and precise response. all the automakers that are dropping their EV models this year are simply foolish. range anxiety is nonexistent for the daily user. i have a 300 mile range after every night-much better than i had with the gas engine and weekly fillups. and if trump had not intentionally stamped out the mobile charging stations, we would be even further along. not sure trump has made a single proper long term decision since returning to office.
The Brent/WTI spread is back to around $11, from as narrow as $5 at mid-April – near the historic average. December 2029 WTI futures are still priced about $5.50 above the pre-war price. Not a happy picture.
not that i enjoy rubbing it in, but the new EV is more pleasant to drive every day. i must say, the EV ride is better than any other vehicle i have ridden in, including the luxury brands. smooth acceleration and precise response. all the automakers that are dropping their EV models this year are simply foolish. range anxiety is nonexistent for the daily user. i have a 300 mile range after every night-much better than i had with the gas engine and weekly fillups. and if trump had not intentionally stamped out the mobile charging stations, we would be even further along. not sure trump has made a single proper long term decision since returning to office.