Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Brent Front Month above $111
Gas at all time high, according to Gasbuddy, as of today:
10 thoughts on “Brent Front Month above $111”
Macroduck
Funny thing – the U.A.E has announced it will leave OPEC as of Friday. An announcement that suggests another 1.2-1.8 million bpd in crude supply has been accompanied by no significant change in Brent prices and a 3.75% rise in WTI. Essentially all of the Emirates’ oil exports are shipped via the Persian Gulf and the adjacent Gulf of Oman, so there is no immediate effect on oil supply from this decision.
There is, however, speculation that this decision is linked to US$ swap lines being negotiated with the U.S. Treasury – a quid pro quo. Seems like nonsense to me. In OPEC or out, the U.S. doesn’t want anything interfering with the U.A.E.’s use of dollars in its sale of oil. Here’s the U.A.E’s warning of just that, about a week ago:
We don’t hear much about petrodollars these days, but they still represent a substantial source of dollar flows, and flows are everything.
Macroduck
The lock-out of workers at BP’s Whiting refinery, now beyond 40 days, accounts for some of the current wide crack spread. BP just posted a $3.2 billion profit for Q1, and wants job cuts and wage consessions from Whiting workers. Indiana’s governor (a Republican) has visited the picket line and has said BP is endangering citizens by bringing in untrained workers. He apparently has a point, as unauthorized flairing has occurred during the lock-out. The State is investigating the flairing and suspected water pollution due to discharge from the refinery.
Remember it was BP that had a blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico during the Obama administration – massive damage. The head of North American operations got all whiny because people said mean things about him. Even compared to other oil companies, BP is a stinker.
David S
Didn’t they go Beyond Petroleum? What are they doing with this planned deepwater well in the Gulf of America?
The study discusses “decadal shifts” in ocean surface temperature, shifts we know as the El Nino/La Nina cycle. Among the findings is that a really strong El Nino may involve hysteresis – may leave average ocean temperatures permanently higher.
You see the problem, yes? What with a really big El Nino shaping up right now? Tipping points and all that? Here it is, spelled out:
nothing is truly elastic in its behavior, and that includes the earth and energy cycles. there is a reason entropy is a law, and not a theory.
joseph
Worth noting that just four days before Trump’s inauguration the UAE royalty invested half a billion dollars in Trump’s World Liberty Financial crypto coin grift. Subsequently Trump gave the UAE an exemption on US AI chip exports. And now he wants to give the UAE a bailout using taxpayer dollars.
Pakistan also invested in WLF. It is an obvious bribery vehicle.
Also noteworthy that Barron Trump is on the board of WLF as “DeFi Visionary”. The corrupt apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Oh, and Middle East and Russian emissary Steve Witkoff’s son Zach Witkoff is chairman of WLF.
Macroduck
Congrats on the Fed meeting outcome. You know the outcome I mean.
Bruce Hall
According to AAA, the highest price (national average) for regular gasoline was set in June, 2022 or in the neighborhood of 60-cents per gallon more than today. https://gasprices.aaa.com
Gas prices are not yet in the summer peak situation. When you consider supply drying up into this upcoming demand cycle, new gasoline all time high prices are probably headed our way. Unless a recession strikes us first.
Oil and gas prices are killing us under trump. And oil majors have record profits at our expense.
Macroduck
Funny, funny, funny. Brucie says gasoline prices are “much” lower than the historic high, after adjusting for inflation. Check his link and see if you agree with “much”. The math says 10.8% lower than the 2022 peak. Notably, the current price, even after adjusting for inflation, is “much” higher than the historic average.
The other thing to know is that Brucie is comparing today’s situation, caused by our war on Iran, to a situation in 2022 caused by Vladimir Putin’s war. Thier guy caused the earlier problem; Brucie’s guy is causing this one. Back then, the inflation-adjusted price of gasoline was above today’s price for less than 5 months. Today, we don’t know how long high prices are going to last, but futures suggest high prices will last for the next few years:
Funny thing – the U.A.E has announced it will leave OPEC as of Friday. An announcement that suggests another 1.2-1.8 million bpd in crude supply has been accompanied by no significant change in Brent prices and a 3.75% rise in WTI. Essentially all of the Emirates’ oil exports are shipped via the Persian Gulf and the adjacent Gulf of Oman, so there is no immediate effect on oil supply from this decision.
There is, however, speculation that this decision is linked to US$ swap lines being negotiated with the U.S. Treasury – a quid pro quo. Seems like nonsense to me. In OPEC or out, the U.S. doesn’t want anything interfering with the U.A.E.’s use of dollars in its sale of oil. Here’s the U.A.E’s warning of just that, about a week ago:
https://fortune.com/2026/04/20/uae-central-bank-dollar-lifeline-fed-treasury-currency-swap-chinese-yuan-iran-war/
We don’t hear much about petrodollars these days, but they still represent a substantial source of dollar flows, and flows are everything.
The lock-out of workers at BP’s Whiting refinery, now beyond 40 days, accounts for some of the current wide crack spread. BP just posted a $3.2 billion profit for Q1, and wants job cuts and wage consessions from Whiting workers. Indiana’s governor (a Republican) has visited the picket line and has said BP is endangering citizens by bringing in untrained workers. He apparently has a point, as unauthorized flairing has occurred during the lock-out. The State is investigating the flairing and suspected water pollution due to discharge from the refinery.
Remember it was BP that had a blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico during the Obama administration – massive damage. The head of North American operations got all whiny because people said mean things about him. Even compared to other oil companies, BP is a stinker.
Didn’t they go Beyond Petroleum? What are they doing with this planned deepwater well in the Gulf of America?
Off topic – climate change and El Nino:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-70986-z
The study discusses “decadal shifts” in ocean surface temperature, shifts we know as the El Nino/La Nina cycle. Among the findings is that a really strong El Nino may involve hysteresis – may leave average ocean temperatures permanently higher.
You see the problem, yes? What with a really big El Nino shaping up right now? Tipping points and all that? Here it is, spelled out:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25042026/el-nino-earth-warming/
Too bad – it’s been nice.
nothing is truly elastic in its behavior, and that includes the earth and energy cycles. there is a reason entropy is a law, and not a theory.
Worth noting that just four days before Trump’s inauguration the UAE royalty invested half a billion dollars in Trump’s World Liberty Financial crypto coin grift. Subsequently Trump gave the UAE an exemption on US AI chip exports. And now he wants to give the UAE a bailout using taxpayer dollars.
Pakistan also invested in WLF. It is an obvious bribery vehicle.
Also noteworthy that Barron Trump is on the board of WLF as “DeFi Visionary”. The corrupt apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Oh, and Middle East and Russian emissary Steve Witkoff’s son Zach Witkoff is chairman of WLF.
Congrats on the Fed meeting outcome. You know the outcome I mean.
According to AAA, the highest price (national average) for regular gasoline was set in June, 2022 or in the neighborhood of 60-cents per gallon more than today.
https://gasprices.aaa.com
Adjusted for inflation, WTI is still much lower than the historical high.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart#google_vignette
Midwest gasoline prices are higher than most of the US except for the western region. Almost every year, prices spike here because of some “refinery problem” just as the driving/tourist season is about to start.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/michigan-gas-prices-surge-to-458-amid-refinery-outage/gm-GME1FBD9E1
Gas prices are not yet in the summer peak situation. When you consider supply drying up into this upcoming demand cycle, new gasoline all time high prices are probably headed our way. Unless a recession strikes us first.
Oil and gas prices are killing us under trump. And oil majors have record profits at our expense.
Funny, funny, funny. Brucie says gasoline prices are “much” lower than the historic high, after adjusting for inflation. Check his link and see if you agree with “much”. The math says 10.8% lower than the 2022 peak. Notably, the current price, even after adjusting for inflation, is “much” higher than the historic average.
The other thing to know is that Brucie is comparing today’s situation, caused by our war on Iran, to a situation in 2022 caused by Vladimir Putin’s war. Thier guy caused the earlier problem; Brucie’s guy is causing this one. Back then, the inflation-adjusted price of gasoline was above today’s price for less than 5 months. Today, we don’t know how long high prices are going to last, but futures suggest high prices will last for the next few years:
https://oilprice.com/futures/gasoline/
But nice try, Brucie. It’s reassuring to know you’ll defend the insurrectionist/rapist/serial bankrupt/war criminal, no matter what he does.