Cleveland Fed nowcast m/m as of today, vs. Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast is a mechanical prediction based on reported CPI and PCE, as well as daily oil prices and weekly gasoline prices.
Figure 1: CPI as reported (bold black, left log scale), Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray, left log scale), Bloomberg consensus (light blue +, left log scale), Quarter-on-Quarter annualized CPI headline inflation using nowcasts (red, right scale). Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed accessed 4/7, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
Here are some energy prices:
NY Fed Survey of Consumers median 1 year inflation expectations rose from 3.0% to 3.4% in March.
When is a war crime not a war crime?:
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/06/pentagon-iran-war-crime-accusations-00860468
Pentagon planners are looking for targets – bridges, desalinization plants, etc. – which are used by the military as well as by civilians. When the order comes to commit war crimes, our military will try to skirt violations of the letter of the law. The spirit, not so much.
Not a surprise to anyone following the news.
Domestic consumers of U.S. petroleum are in heavy competition with the rest of the world:
“U.S. exports of refined petroleum products hit a record high in March 2026, averaging 3.11 million barrels per day. According to data from shipping tracking firm Kpler, [up] from the 2.5 million barrels per day… in February 2026…”
https://www.vietnam.vn/en/xuat-khau-nhien-lieu-my-lap-ky-luc-3-11-trieu-thung-moi-ngay-trong-thang-3-2026
That’s a 24% m/m increase in refined petroleum exports. In recent years, the U.S. has imported about 2 million bpd of refined petroleum. I assume imports are down now, but I have no data. Keep in mind that China is scheduled to ship 600,000 bbls of crude per day from the U.S. in April, after ending its ban on purchases from the U.S.
December 2029 gasoline futures closed at $2.063 today, up from $1.83-$1.84 in late February, $1.64-$1.65 in early January. Market participants are pricing in substantial odds of elevated gasoline prices for at least the next three years.
The FEd should be more worried about your trimmed mean rate ( courtesy of our RBA of course). any information on that?
On the political front i can’t see things improving before the mid-terms
Ta-Ta-Ta TACO!
Wonder who will have traded thisdecision before it was announced.
Looks like there are still a few bugs in the cease fire. Israel declared the cease fire applies only to Iran, not to Lebanon. Iran disagrees. Israel has diverted the weapons it had been using against Iran to Lebanon, launching its largest bombing strike so far in its attack in Lebanon; IIran has announced that Hormuz is closed in response.
Oil priced have not responded much to the news of Hormuz being closed, perhaps on the assumption that Israel will be told to stop with the war crimes.