From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, today:
Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), March SPF median (brown), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (red triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, log scale. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
Since the series are plotted on a log scale, it’s clear that “core GDP” is decelerating, both relative to the 2023-24 trend, and the March Survey of Professional Forecasters median.
Note that the nowcasts are based upon reported data through February (i.e., prewar data).
The war-criminal-in-chief repeated his untethered babble refused to take responsibility to open the Steaitof Hotmuz and tossed in a threat.
Two days ago, the UAE indicate its willingness to join in military action to open the Strait, with little market reaction: (and has since waffled on that intention):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uae-said-pushing-for-military-op-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-is-willing-to-take-part/ar-AA1ZSSO2
Yemen’s Houthis, perhaps in response to the UAE,, perhaps to the war criminal, have threatened to close Bab al Mandeb if any Gulf country joins the war against Iran. That threat presumably includes military efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz:
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/houthis-ready-chokehold-on-bab-al-mandeb-if-gulf-countries-join-iran-war-3217311
WTI up 11%, Brent up 7.5%.
By the way, Iran is reportedly earning more on its oil exports now than it did before the war; not much motive to open the Strait. Good job, guys.
ADP reports 62,000 new privateprivate-sector jobs in March, with small firms accou ting for 112,000 of that 62,000. Trade, transport and utility jobs down 58,000 – obviously related to energy prices. Manufacturing jobs down 11,000 – tariffs and energy related.
Not a good sign when firms larger than 19 people, taken together, shed 50,000 jobs