One thought on “Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait”
Macroduck
One way of squaring low expectations of reopening Hormuz with the drop in oil prices is that Hormuz won’t fully reopen, but that Iran will allow more traffic through the Strait. Iran had, for instance, suggested a “humanitarian corridor” for fertilizer prior to the ceasefire deal. And the war-criminal-in-chief’s latest TACO suggests some desparation to get oil flowing. So it maybe something less thsn “hormuz is open” could be in the works.
Meanwhile, December 2026 oil futures are still pretty close to the March 20 high, well above the pre-war level.
One way of squaring low expectations of reopening Hormuz with the drop in oil prices is that Hormuz won’t fully reopen, but that Iran will allow more traffic through the Strait. Iran had, for instance, suggested a “humanitarian corridor” for fertilizer prior to the ceasefire deal. And the war-criminal-in-chief’s latest TACO suggests some desparation to get oil flowing. So it maybe something less thsn “hormuz is open” could be in the works.
Meanwhile, December 2026 oil futures are still pretty close to the March 20 high, well above the pre-war level.