While Republicans/Lean Republican respondents to the U.Michigan survey don’t show a very different response to March/April economic events, they are remarkably upbeat on the future.
Figure 1: U.Michigan Overall Consumer Sentiment (bold black), Democratic/Lean Democratic (blue), Independent (gray), Republican/Lean Republican (red). April is preliminary. Source: U. Michigan.
The decrease in sentiment is about the same for Republicans and Democrats over the two months from February. This composite variable masks differennces assessment of current conditions and expectations. Focusing on the latter, we see Republicans remaining largely optimistic. Figure 2 shows the expectations subindex broken down by partisan grouping, relative to February 2026 levels.
Figure 1: Change from February 2026 levels in U.Michigan Overall Consumer Expectations (bold black), Democratic/Lean Democratic (blue), Independent (gray), Republican/Lean Republican (red). April is preliminary. Source: U. Michigan, and author’s calculations.
Republican expectations have fallen by about 2.5%, compared to 26% for Democratic, and 19% overall.
None of those results is a shock. Perceptions are deeply impacted by political affiliation (both left and right leaning). Apparently, Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson is somewhat right leaning.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20260407a.htm
There is pretty good evidence that the mood of those on the right – as measured by consumer confidence surveys – is more influenced by politics than the mood of centrists or those on the left.
And no, this is not shocking, not any longer, because we’ve come to expect it. In the past, there was less divergence between the confidence levels of left, right and center, and how this divergence has developed is telling. Recently, the confidence of those on the right has become less reflective of conditions in the economy, more reflective of politics. The same cannot be said for those in the center or on the left.
We’re seeing the right-wing information bubble in action. Those in the right dismiss facts as fake news if those facts don’t flatter their own political views. Not so muc foreverybody else. That’s why the moods of centrists and lefties hold more similar views of the economy, while righties drift off in their own little world.
If you read that speech as “right leaning”, perhaps it’s because you read it through a right-wing bubble lense.
From the text:
“Inflation has eased from its pandemic-era peak, but progress has stalled over the past year mainly due to tariffs. In addition, I expect elevated energy prices will be reflected in upcoming inflation readings.”
Two policies of the felon-in-chief, both identified as inflationary. What’s right-wing about that?
Philip N. Jefferson wrote on the economics of poverty. He’s not right leaning but Bruce Hall can’t be bothered to check the man’s resume.
China has announced that it will ban the export of sulfuric acid starting in May. As of 2023, China accounted for12.4% of world sulfuric acid exports – not Hormuz-level disruption, but right up there:
https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/sulphuric-acid-oleum
Sulfuric acid is the most widely used industrial. Here’s a partial list of uses:
https://citadolchemicals.com/15-best-uses-of-sulphuric-acid/
Top of the list: agricultural fertilizers.