Economic Report of the President, 2026 Out on Monday

The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be OBE given slowdown pre-War, and post-War cost-push shock.

However, I expect a more fulsome explanation for why the Administration forecast deviated from roughly contemporaneously finalized forecasts, as shown below.

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April Admin. 2026/Nov. 2025 (red square), November 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters (brown), IMF October WEO (teal triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, OMB, IMF WEO October update, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

As for topics, my guess — see recent reports (purely a guess — I have no contacts in the current CEA).

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