On the one hand, relatively speaking it is a major spike. But in terms of absolute values, it is well below 2005-08, 2011-14, and 2022.
My suspicion is that in terms of ordinary consumers feeling a real constriction of spending power on other things, gas prices would have to reach at least $5/gallon.
On the other hand (of course! This is economic forecasting after all) the real aggregate purchasing power of ordinary workers has already taken a hit. If it persists, I would expect a downturn in consumer spending in real terms.
If we use the end of March, rather than the average, the number goes up to 7.5 minutes.
This is the longer term view, going back to 1991:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1UzEp&height=490
On the one hand, relatively speaking it is a major spike. But in terms of absolute values, it is well below 2005-08, 2011-14, and 2022.
My suspicion is that in terms of ordinary consumers feeling a real constriction of spending power on other things, gas prices would have to reach at least $5/gallon.
On the other hand (of course! This is economic forecasting after all) the real aggregate purchasing power of ordinary workers has already taken a hit. If it persists, I would expect a downturn in consumer spending in real terms.