Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
The Last Month’s June Brent and Kalshi Hormuz Re-opening Odds
As of 2pm CT today:
The July 1 probability hasn’t been this low since April 7th, when June Brent was about $111. It’s now about $118.
11 thoughts on “The Last Month’s June Brent and Kalshi Hormuz Re-opening Odds”
joseph
Good news. Powell announced that he will stay on the board of governors indefinitely. What that means is that current toady Stephen Miran is out to make room for Warsh. Trump still has Waller and Bowman on the board, but they seem to be significantly less obsequious than Miran.
Hopefully Powell stays at least until after the mid-term elections and gives Democrats a chance to retake the majority in the Senate for his replacement.
Just wait for the caterwauling from the MAGA crowd, but one has to play hardball with this corrupt administration. “Unprecedented” they will shout, but Congress gave governors 14-year terms for a reason and Trump is illustrating exactly why that is necessary. Trump’s bullying has backfired.
Baffling
NACHO
joseph
And right on schedule:
Secretary Bessent: Powell staying on at the Fed is a “violation of norms”.
Former BLS head Erika McEntarfer: “I guess if we’re doing norms again I should report back to my old job?”
Macroduck
While the inflationary and recessionary risks associated with oil scarcity are concerning, the risk of famine is also worth a thought. Here are some fertilizer price tidbits:
From this second link: “Seventy percent of American farmers say they cannot afford all the fertilizers they need for their fields and crops.”
By the way, the price ratio between diammonium phosphate fertilizer and corn is the highest on record, which helps to explain the 70% quote. Maybe plant beans?
Here’s a good explainer for the magnitude of the fertilizer problem:
Tack on the interaction of fuel AND fertilizer shortages AND the effects of climate change and it ain’t pretty. The “Will we have enough microchips to keep AI on track?” question pales a little bit next to “how many Somali, Iranian, Palestinian children will die?” question. (That’s despite faux news efforts to pretend the hungry kid thing is exaggerated.)
But we can’t open Hormuz now and negotiate later. The war-criminal-in-chief says so. We can’t admit a horrible, ego-driven, Bibi-tricked-Donnie, “What were we thinking?” screw-up. We have to Win! Win! Win! and Iran has to Surrender! Surrender! Surrender! So children will just have to starve, starve, starve and factories stand idle and businesses shutdown and lives be ruined because Win! and Surrender!
‘Cause that’s who America voted for.
Macroduck
Two things:
“Scoop: Commanders to brief Trump on new Iran military options Thursday”
Personally, I doubt the war-criminal-in-chief will choose to attack Iran unless we’re engaged in peace talks. Habits are hard to break.
Willie
Even if it opens tomorrow, damage is baked in now. That’s my outhouse economist’s thought.
Ivan
Also the in-house view in my cozy little den.
Macroduck
The BOJ left rates unchanged, warned of stagflation. What to do in the face if stagflation? Three board members dissented in favor of a hike, so I’m guessing the BOJ is more likely to hike next than to ease.
Oh, and three FOMC members objected to the suggestion in the Statement that an ease is the likely next Fed move. One difference is that the BOJ’s overnight rate is still well below the inflation rate.
baffling
volcker showed you how to get out of stagflation. the previous regime kept rates lower. we know how this will possibly end.
Baffling
off topic, but camp mystic in texas hill country decided not to reopen this summer, giving in to pressure. if you recall that is the summer camp that killed 25 little girls in flash floods last summer. they have had previous deadly flash floods at the camp in the past as well. why would grown adults continue to press for this camp to reopen after such an event, and reopen under the same management that failed so spectacularly last summer? money and heritage seem to be pretty powerful motivators here. glad to see the right course of action seems to have taken place. however, current management should never be given a license to reopen again.
Macroduck
Low-information parents? Never underestimate the capacity of “the middle” for ignorance.
Good news. Powell announced that he will stay on the board of governors indefinitely. What that means is that current toady Stephen Miran is out to make room for Warsh. Trump still has Waller and Bowman on the board, but they seem to be significantly less obsequious than Miran.
Hopefully Powell stays at least until after the mid-term elections and gives Democrats a chance to retake the majority in the Senate for his replacement.
Just wait for the caterwauling from the MAGA crowd, but one has to play hardball with this corrupt administration. “Unprecedented” they will shout, but Congress gave governors 14-year terms for a reason and Trump is illustrating exactly why that is necessary. Trump’s bullying has backfired.
NACHO
And right on schedule:
Secretary Bessent: Powell staying on at the Fed is a “violation of norms”.
Former BLS head Erika McEntarfer: “I guess if we’re doing norms again I should report back to my old job?”
While the inflationary and recessionary risks associated with oil scarcity are concerning, the risk of famine is also worth a thought. Here are some fertilizer price tidbits:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urea
https://www.agweb.com/news/phosphate-fertilizer-prices-soar-near-historic-highs
Here are some famine and farm headlines, though I assume y’all are aware without them:
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-war-is-latest-blow-somalias-malnourished-children-2026-04-28/
https://www.dailyrecordnews.com/news/two-fronts-fertilizers-and-fuel-are-top-of-mind-for-farmers-as-the-iran-war/article_d4ae9c8e-b558-44c1-be83-fb7d2bc57a50.html
From this second link: “Seventy percent of American farmers say they cannot afford all the fertilizers they need for their fields and crops.”
By the way, the price ratio between diammonium phosphate fertilizer and corn is the highest on record, which helps to explain the 70% quote. Maybe plant beans?
Here’s a good explainer for the magnitude of the fertilizer problem:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-fertilizer-and-food-security-risks-impacts-and-policy-responses
Tack on the interaction of fuel AND fertilizer shortages AND the effects of climate change and it ain’t pretty. The “Will we have enough microchips to keep AI on track?” question pales a little bit next to “how many Somali, Iranian, Palestinian children will die?” question. (That’s despite faux news efforts to pretend the hungry kid thing is exaggerated.)
But we can’t open Hormuz now and negotiate later. The war-criminal-in-chief says so. We can’t admit a horrible, ego-driven, Bibi-tricked-Donnie, “What were we thinking?” screw-up. We have to Win! Win! Win! and Iran has to Surrender! Surrender! Surrender! So children will just have to starve, starve, starve and factories stand idle and businesses shutdown and lives be ruined because Win! and Surrender!
‘Cause that’s who America voted for.
Two things:
“Scoop: Commanders to brief Trump on new Iran military options Thursday”
https://archive.is/VrO7z#selection-379.0-379.70
“Oil Hits Wartime High Above $120 a Barrel as Standoff Shows No End in Sight”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/business/oil-gas-price-iran.html
Personally, I doubt the war-criminal-in-chief will choose to attack Iran unless we’re engaged in peace talks. Habits are hard to break.
Even if it opens tomorrow, damage is baked in now. That’s my outhouse economist’s thought.
Also the in-house view in my cozy little den.
The BOJ left rates unchanged, warned of stagflation. What to do in the face if stagflation? Three board members dissented in favor of a hike, so I’m guessing the BOJ is more likely to hike next than to ease.
Oh, and three FOMC members objected to the suggestion in the Statement that an ease is the likely next Fed move. One difference is that the BOJ’s overnight rate is still well below the inflation rate.
volcker showed you how to get out of stagflation. the previous regime kept rates lower. we know how this will possibly end.
off topic, but camp mystic in texas hill country decided not to reopen this summer, giving in to pressure. if you recall that is the summer camp that killed 25 little girls in flash floods last summer. they have had previous deadly flash floods at the camp in the past as well. why would grown adults continue to press for this camp to reopen after such an event, and reopen under the same management that failed so spectacularly last summer? money and heritage seem to be pretty powerful motivators here. glad to see the right course of action seems to have taken place. however, current management should never be given a license to reopen again.
Low-information parents? Never underestimate the capacity of “the middle” for ignorance.