Out today; first, the IMF’s reference scenario:
This is the reference scenario, invoking a short war. Here are revisions preconflict, and Adverse and Severe scenario outlooks (%, y/y).
Out today; first, the IMF’s reference scenario:
This is the reference scenario, invoking a short war. Here are revisions preconflict, and Adverse and Severe scenario outlooks (%, y/y).
The U.S. does OK in the reference scenario, as you’d expect.
What I find odd is that China, with a diversified energy base, is among the worst performers, slightly worse than Japan, which has a less diversified energy base. Petrochemicals, maybe. China’s petrochemical industry is over-built. Japan’s petrochem sector has been restructuring. Even so, that seems a small issue relative to energy diversity.
I am a little surprised to see anticipated economic growth in the United States remaining at 2% or more. I expect it to falter, if not go negative, based upon inflationary pressures, interest rates, and related issues. The job market has been weak lately, meaning things are slowing. Am I reading this wrong?